JANUARY remains the best chance much of Queensland has for significant rain this summer, according to Bureau of Meteorology senior climate liaison officer Jeff Sabburg.
After a year in which the state experienced its equal-third-warmest year on record and rainfall totals in the driest 10 per cent of years in some areas, hopes have been pinned on developing wet season indicators to bring relief.
Although El Nino-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean have weakened in the last fortnight and tropical waters are cooling, the bureau is keeping its ENSO tracker status at the alert level.
"This means there's still a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino forming," Mr Sabburg said.
"We've never had one form so late and it would be unusual if it did, but we are sticking by the fact that we feel February and March will be drier."
He says there is only a 35 to 40 per cent chance of above average rain in those months.
This is partly to do with a predicted weakening in trade winds in coming weeks, which may bring renewed sea surface temperature warming.
Australia is currently experiencing the first monsoonal burst of the season, which began at Darwin on New Year's Eve.
The trough is forecast to remain over the Top End, Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea for the remainder of the week, and forecasters will be looking closely for tropical cyclone development as a result.
Mr Sabburg said a close eye would also be kept on the MJO wave.
The west of the state has a 70-75pc chance of higher than average temperatures in the next couple of months, while the south east should see a reprieve.
This week's monsoonal influence has been making its presence felt at Winton, where the Diamantina River has begun running. After a slow start, Rob Banning reported from 50mm at Jarvisfield, 80mm at Collingwood to 120mm at Cork, and run-off that has relieved his water drought. He welcomed the change and said he would have a lot of catching up to do, with stock numbers greatly reduced.
"Some grass is dead and will have to germinate from seed," he said.
Further north at Julia Creek, Belinda Murphy described conditions as more promising than last year but cautioned that people were still experiencing storm rain only. "We've got a mixed bag here - some have destocked, some are holding onto breeders, and some have a bit more than that. We all need a monsoon trough to come down and give us a general wetting," she said.
Boulia's Rick Britton said his area "couldn't pull a cloud" at the moment but he liked the positive monsoonal signals. Council staff have been taking a lot of storm debris off roads to the north around Duchess but the season was still very ordinary the further south one went.
"I really hope those with a green tinge don't have that all burnt off by hot weather," he said.
Muttaburra graziers have mixed rain results to report. Ann Ballinger at Stockholm scored 126mm in a storm in mid-December, which was followed up this week with 21mm.
"We've been unbelievably lucky, but even so, not all our country got rain," she said.
For Kylie McAuliffe at Llorac, 48mm on Monday night has been her biggest fall of the season. Earlier rain came in dribs and drabs but has been more than last summer, and earlier. The property is destocked and the country will need a good break before any restocking decisions are made.
Peter Lucas' days pushing mulga at Cliffdale, Wyandra, haven't come to an end yet, with just 17mm recorded this week and 20mm on Boxing Day. The clouds are around but not a lot has been falling out of them for the pair or their neighbours. They recorded 630 pts in 2014, six inches in 2013 and eight inches in 2012, so any rain is falling on very dry ground.
Patchy falls have brought a total of 75mm to Brian Rutledge and family at Moble, Quilpie. Coming in 16 separate events over five weeks, Brian said it was still shaping up to be a better start to summer than they'd seen for the last two or three years.
"Water was a major problem for us last summer, whereas we are streets ahead now," he said.
Much of the Barcoo shire is having its rain gaps filled in and Julie Groves feels most places have had a start. She and husband Ian recorded 58mm at Haughtonvale, near Jundah and she said it was a privilege to look out over green grass.
"It's a start," she said. "At least it's helped raise spirits."
Mitchell grazier and AgForce general president Grant Maudsley received 269mm at Nalpa Downs, 40km north-west of Mitchell, during December, but said falls were lighter south of town.
“Further south down into the mulga country it’s a bit tougher,” he said.
“Some of those places only had two to four inches so they will definitely need follow-up.”
Some 10km north-east of Dirranbandi, Chloe Brown at Bonathorne, reports a bit over 60mm of rain fell last Friday.
With a forage sorghum crop that was looking pretty thirsty, she said the rain has provided some much-need relief.
In Bollon, Alan and Liz Browning received 52mm at their property North Yancho, 40km south-west of the town.
Mr Browning said that after nearly completely destocking, the fall will help the remaining sheep survive and provide some good cattle feed.
He said nearby properties were blessed with falls of up to 75-100mm.
Bob Speed and Andrea Schulz received a very welcome late Christmas present at Peek-A-Doo, 50km south-west of Taroom.
"It was really good grass rain, it was very steady to begin with and the last fall between Christmas and New Year's which was 3 inches (75mm) was enough to fill the dam," Miss Schulz said.
"It means absolutely everything to us, a lifesaver really."
With a mixture of cattle and cropping, Miss Schulz said the fall would provide feed and hopefully provide enough water for a crop soon.
At Chinchilla, Andrew and Di McIntyre are over the moon after receiving approximately 138mm on their block between Jackson and Wandoan.
Mr McIntyre said they were nearly out of stock water prior to the fall.
"It was only just before Christmas that I bought poly and troughs to put in and now our dams are finally full," he said.
"I'll still put them in to pump from a bore, but there's no real panic now."
Mr McIntyre said they were also more than pleased with a fall of over 280mm at their home block, Donmorandi, north-east of Chinchilla.
At Roslyn, 26km north of Crows Nest, Ian Stark and Jeanne Seifert recorded 11mm this last week to cap off 129mm for December.
The property is now gushing with green grass.
While they recorded 400mm for 2014, it is a whopping 300mm short of their annual average rainfall.
On the western Darling Downs Stuart and Dee Schostakowski, The Mead, Warra, have planted 405 hectares of summer crop in between showers over rain over the past month.
"Just before Christmas we had 65mm, after Christmas we had another 36mm and this year we have had another 30mm," he said.
"We've done alright but a lot of people have got more than us."
The Saal family, Glenmore, Brookstead, received about 190mm in December, mostly from Christmas Day onwards.
Mrs Saal said the rain had been great for the sorghum and corn they had already planted.
Mal and Shiri Sinton, Fairview, Allora, said they had mostly received storm rain in the area and falls varied from farm to farm.
Mr Sinton said he had planted sorghum, which was going well so far. However he had lost his sunflower crop, which received too much water, but he planned to replant some of it.
"It's been dry for too long so I'm not really complaining - the year's been wet so far," he said.
"I'd say on average between seven and eight inches [178 to 203mm] during December."
