Farmers are becoming increasingly nervous about the persistent hot, dry weather that is gripping inland Australia. Although the current El Nino weather pattern is weakening, its effects continue to influence inland Australian weather patterns.
Apart from light scattered showers last week, southern Queensland cropping areas received no meaningful rainfall.
Autumn rainfall across most of inland eastern Australia, including the Darling Downs, has been significantly below average and temperatures have been well above normal. Dalby has only received 15mm so far in March and April and temperatures have been, on average, 3 to 4 degrees warmer than normal.
Some isolated light showers reached the eastern Darling Downs last week including 15mm at Oakey and 10mm in Pittsworth, but well short of the amounts needed.
Anzac Day, the unofficial start to the winter cropping program, is less than a week away, and farmers are still holding out for widespread soaking rains to kick-start planting.
The unrelenting hot, dry weather patterns are even making dry-planting decisions difficult. Hotter than normal temperatures have dried soils out very quickly, to the extent that farmers will need a substantial rain event to ensure dry planted crops germinate evenly and seedlings have enough moisture to hold on to the next rain.
Longer term weather forecasts are still pointing to a wetter than normal winter across inland Australia as the current El Nino breaks down. Confidence in this outlook will continue to erode the longer it remains dry.
However the ongoing dry has done little to ignite the sluggish domestic grain prices. Sorghum bids continued to drift lower last week with the complete lack of exporter buying interest to support values, falling by $12 to $201 delivered Darling Downs. But even at these levels, buying interest remains thin. White grains, which are seeing stronger domestic buying interest into the Darling Downs markets, were more resilient with wheat and barley both up $2 to $257 and $238 respectively.
At these levels, farmers are saying they will reconsider their summer cropping options for next year in search of better returns.
Sorghum has proved a valuable crop for southern Queensland farmers over the past three seasons as the combination of good yields and strong prices have coincided. But the chances of this continuing are fading as China’s appetite for sorghum imports declines.
United States wheat futures ended last week little changed, largely ignoring the sharp rallies seen in both corn and oilseed markets.
