THE Port of Townsville website shows nothing scheduled in the way of a definite berth booking since the relatively small vessel Bison Express departed on October 13. And just to emphasise the plight of the trade, the Bison sat idle at Townsville for three weeks before it finally got underway.
However, ships are still being loaded for Vietnam with the Ocean Ute the last to depart on October 11 and the Gloucester Express due back in Townsville on October 27 after its latest voyage to that destination.
The port website also indicates the Dareen may be due in Townsville around November 2 but at this stage the ship still appears to be in Singapore where fleet monitoring sites indicate it has been since at least July this year.
In the Northern Territory the situation is marginally better with two ships, the Ganado Express and the Shorthorn Express maintaining a degree of regularity in turnaround trips to Indonesia throughout October.
Basic economic principles would normally suggest that lessened demand in a segment of the market as significant as live export feeders could be expected to have a dampening effect on prices in the wider store cattle market in northern and central Queensland, but not so it would seem.
Instead, the recent rain has ignited more than enough domestic demand in a drought-reduced supply environment to counteract any impact that might have come from lower level activity on the export side.
Last week’s AuctionsPlus sale tells the story. Good quality vendor-bred Droughtmaster steers north of Winton weighing 289kg sold for $1199 or 414c on property. And to show that the big money is not just for special lines, a line of mixed background higher-content Brahman steers at Home Hill weighing 225kg sold for 390c. With the domestic store market driving these sorts of rates it is perhaps understandable that the unsettled nature of the live export market does not seem particularly concerning for cattle producers just at the moment.
‘Ration House’ buffalo meat release
MEANWHILE, the Indonesian government appears to be forging ahead on its market intervention strategy to contain escalating prices for basic food commodities.
Jakarta news site Tempo.co reported on Saturday that state-owned logistics agency Bulog has announced the opening of 2500 ‘Ration House’ outlets selling inexpensive basic food items.
According to Bulog commercial director Karyawan Gunarso, the outlets so far are located in Java and Sumatra.
They were established through collaboration with communities, business groups and individuals and the target is to extend them to every community unit by next year. Following on from this, Bulog announced that it was now ready to release 9000-10,000 tonnes of buffalo meat imported from India onto the market.
The process will involve Bulog selling the meat to vendors at Rp 56,000/kg who in turn are expected to retail it at Rp 60,000/kg.
According to the Tempo.co article, a maximum selling price of Rp 65,000/kg has been set by the government with the intent of achieving price stability for both buffalo meat and beef.
Further gain in kill numbers
A DRY track it seems is making all the difference and the 18pc spike in national kill numbers a fortnight ago grew by a further 6pc last week to reach 126,268 head.
This is still a long way short of same-week figures for last year and the year before when the tallies were 167,000 and 176,000 respectively but it would seem enough to keep the meatworks fully occupied under their modified shift arrangements.
In consequence there have been several price adjustments over the last two weeks resulting in a 30c/kg reduction to over-the-hooks rates in southern Queensland. That has brought four-tooth ox this week to around 550c/kg dw and heavy cow to 495.
While that should not have come as any great surprise, the effect would likely be causing some sale-program reassessment by producers given the amount of green feed in paddocks.
Undoubtedly there are cattle that could go on the truck now but in the last two weeks their value has reduced by $100/head.
That loss can be made up with a modest liveweight gain if prices do not drop any further but of course it is the ‘if’ part of that statement that is the worry.
Oats cattle are expected to start their run in 3-4 weeks time coinciding with spring turnoff in the southern states ramping up into full stride.
This time last year the four-tooth ox price was 520c and it fell to below 500 in the early months of this year before rain turned it around.
With the storm season approaching, rain must be factored into the sell/hold question as must the super-high cost of replacement cattle.
Talking to one major processor earlier this week it seems that some producers may be adopting an ‘each way’ approach and this looks to have consolidated numbers for the next two weeks. After that and particularly for the bigger sheds, it will likely become a week-by-week affair.
The recent price adjustment will help processors but it is evident that it will only go part of the way toward restoring trade viability.
It would certainly make a difference if meat was a little easier to sell in the US at the moment but there are few positive signs of anything to look forward to there.
Steiner’s latest report says that fed-beef in the US is now at its lowest level since 2010 and domestic fat trim (50CL beef) is trading close to rendering value.
