CEREAL prices at decade lows have meant many farmers are looking at broadleaf crops wherever possible for the 2017 winter plant.
Farming leaders across the country are reporting strong interest in canola and high value pulse crops, but have cautioned there are limits to how much more can be grown due to rotational pressures.
Other growers are looking even further out the square to options such as increased livestock numbers or hay production.
QUEENSLAND:
AgForce grains council president Wayne Newton said in spite of chickpea values falling slightly from the record levels set over the past two years, the pulse crop remained the preferred option for the winter crop for Queensland croppers.
He said the size of the plant would depend on autumn rainfall.
“It was a sporadic summer in terms of rainfall, with storm driven localised falls rather than generalised rain, but there has been good March rainfall in some areas, including parts of the Darling Downs and the Central Highlands.”
“It is still a while off the planting window for the winter crop for us, but the rain increases optimism.”
Mr Newton said farmers wanted to plant chickpeas where possible but said rotationally it may be difficult to fit more of the legume into the cropping program.
“After last year’s fungal disease pressure people will not be looking to chickpea on chickpea plantings so the availability of suitable paddocks may be limited.”
Brendan Taylor, AgForce grains council director, said chickpeas would be popular due to a lack of an alternative with good gross margins.
However, he agreed lack of suitable ground may curtail planting intentions to an extent.
Mr Newton said the size of the plant would depend on levels of stored moisture.
“With the cereal price where it is, I don’t think people will grow wheat unless there is a good bank of moisture underneath.”
NSW:
Grain Growers chairman and Baradine grain grower John Eastburn said he expected plantings throughout the state would be largely on-time after good early autumn rain in many areas, in particular through the Central West.
He said he expected canola plantings to rise in the areas it was traditionally grown, such as the Central West, Liverpool Plains and the Riverina, while he said northern growers remained interested in chickpeas.
Interestingly, he forecast some growers would dump wheat in favour of barley or oats, both of which had prices lower as a percentage of their long term average than wheat last season.
“I think farmers will look for other options aside from wheat,” he said.
Mr Eastburn said mixed farmers may also look to increase the number of livestock they run.
“Some don’t have the infrastructure for livestock anymore, but with good sheep and cattle prices, those that can run more stock may do so.”
Lachy Herbert, Riverina Oils and Bio-Energy said he expected a substantial push for canola in the Central West, particularly in the areas that have received heavy March rainfall.
“Some of the areas that have had rain often only plant 5-10 percent of their hectares to canola, that may well rise to 20-30pc should the autumn remain damp.”
VICTORIA:
President of the Victorian No-Till Farmers Association (VNTFA) Paul Oxbrow said farmers in the south were likely to stick to their long-term rotations.
“There is a lot of speculation about people planting more pulses or more canola but in general farmers have pretty strict rotations.
“Maybe people will have the odd unallocated paddock they look to change into canola or pulse crops but I would not think it would be more than 5pc.”
He said in general Victoria’s cropping zone was yet to have substantial rain.
“Some areas up near the Murray River in the Mallee, such as Piangil, had good falls in storms, but most areas are still dry.”
There was also reasonable rainfall in the State’s medium to high rainfall zones in the far west and south-west.
Mr Oxbrow said farmers were taking notice of long term forecasts that indicated there was the prospect of an El Niño event developing, usually consistent with a drier than average spring.
“People are looking at the forecast, although they will not base their planting decisions around it, they will be aware of it.”
In terms of pulse crops he said lentils and chickpeas were preferred, with markedly better pricing prospects than other options, such as faba beans or field peas.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA:
Grain Producers South Australia chairman Wade Dabinett said farmers were assessing their options in the lead-up to planting.
Unlike other states, he said there had been little opening rain.
“In the south-east of the state we saw good rain earlier in the month, with up to 100mm in places like Lucindale, but other parts of the state are still dry.”
He said canola and lentils were the popular candidates for any unallocated acreage.
“Wherever people have a bit of flexibility, they will look to get in more broadleaf crops, but rotations are generally fairly rigid.
At his own farm at Parilla in the eastern SA Mallee, he would look at increasing barley acreage.
“We don’t see the discount for barley compared to wheat as enough to get us to get into wheat considering we can get better yields with barley.
“The gross margins last year stacked up in favour of barley and it is also a tough crop if there is dryness in spring.”
WESTERN AUSTRALIA:
Canola is also a preferred option in Western Australia, particularly after solid summer and early autumn rains in many areas, but seed shortage is curtailing some of the push for an expansion of canola hectares.
Gary McGill, chairman of the Pastoralists and Graziers Association’s Western Grain Growers committee, said commercial seed was in short supply.
“People are happy with their moisture levels and keen to plant more canola but commercial seed, especially genetically modified (GM) seed, which is very popular here, is virtually impossible to get hold of,” he said.
“How much that limits canola plantings I don’t know.”
Mr McGill said the recent rain had allayed fears of drier than average seasonal conditions.
“People are reasonably happy with the situation as it stands now.”
Grain Producers Australia (GPA) board member and Pingelly farmer Ray Marshall said while the seasonal conditions were reasonable, low grain prices were a talking point.
“There is a bit of pessimism about the low prices and how long they might endure.”
“The issue for many is what will they grow and how will they grow it, how much money will they spend when returns are low.”
Mr Marshall said some farmers were building livestock numbers, but he added this was a slow process.
“Building up a flock takes time, it is not like cropping where you can switch in and out year by year, you need to be committed to increasing livestock numbers for the long term not just chasing the immediate high prices.”