Australian grain exports continue to flow at a record pace following last year’s massive harvest.
Recently released government monthly trade data showed that Australian wheat, barley and canola is being rapidly shipped into overseas markets. The swift export pace has some trading thinking that Australia’s carry over grain stocks may not be as large as previously thought.
Australia shipped 2.4 million tonnes of wheat in March, slightly up on the February figures and modestly below the record large 2.54 million tonnes exported in January. This puts the national January to March wheat shipments at a record large 7.3 million tonnes.
Barley shipments continue to flow at a breakneck pace. Australia’s March barley exports were a record large 1.27 million tonnes. The massive March exports was the third consecutive month where Australian barley shipments exceeded one million tonnes, a feat that hadn’t been achieved before this year.
The rampant barley export pace is being driven by strong demand from China, and to a less degree Saudi Arabia.
Queensland wheat exports are also progressing rapidly and is on track for the biggest export season since 2012/13. There were 135,000 tonnes of wheat shipped from Queensland ports in March, bringing the October to March total to more than 640,000 tonnes, with a further six months in the marketing year remaining. This compares to last season’s total 2015/16 Queensland wheat exports of less than 400,000 tonnes.
Queensland chickpea shipments are also advancing rapidly. A further 144,000 tonnes of chickpeas were exported from Queensland in March. This takes the October to March exports to 1.23 million tonnes, which is double last year’s pace. Total Australian chickpea exports for the 2016/17 season have already topped 1.6 million tonnes.
Many Queensland grain farmers have started dry seeding the 2017/18 winter crops, as they wait for further planting rains. Some farmers in the Goondiwindi area are planting on soil moisture after picking up some isolated storms in recent weeks, but many have decided to commence dry planting. Good soil moisture levels following the March rain has comforted growers to proceed with dry seeding strategies.
Overall, Australia’s autumn weather has been mixed. Victoria, South Australia and most of New South Wales have received a general seasonal break. However, Western Australian farmers are also pushing ahead with dry planting following limited rain in April and early May.
Grain prices ended last week mostly firmer on global factors, aided by a weaker Australian dollar.
Wheat bids continue to strengthen as traders reacted to a sharp rally in US wheat futures after late season blizzard took a toll on HRW crops. US wheat futures rallied by 10 per cent over several days on the back of the storms, but gave back much of these gains soon after.
The USDA will issue its first assessment of the world 2017/18 wheat crop. This is expected to show a sharp drop in production following last year’s record large harvest. Heavy old crop wheat supplies in the United States, Canada and Russia continues to cap rallies in world wheat markets.
