AS WINTER crops wait on rain, climate models forecasting a drying El Nino cycle were this week all downgraded to neutral.
But the Bureau of Meteorology's Spring climate outlook still predicts just average or below average falls across the country, with warmer daytime temperatures to boot.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) September to November forecast predicts below average rainfall in Western Australia, driven by cooler sea surface temperatures reducing moisture flow onto the land.
Average rainfall levels are forecast for most of the rest of the country, except for south east Queensland, which may be slightly wetter.
Soils are parched after southern Australia’s dry winter and with forecasts of average rainfall at best, streamflows are expected to remain low.
Meanwhile, high pressure systems dominate along southern Australia, driving daytime maximum temperatures above average across the country.
This scenario is most likely to be realised in northern and southeastern Australia, where there is a greater than 80% chance of warmer than average days.
Spring nights are also likely to be warmer than average over northern and eastern Australia, fed by warmer sea surface temperatures off the northern and eastern coasts.