Summer arrived early as heatwave temperatures moved across southern Queensland last week.
The mercury climbed into the into the high 30s on the weekend after spending much of the week in the low 30s. Records tumbled as the temperature soared, with Gatton reaching 38.7 C on Sunday – its hottest ever September day. Roma reached 39.5 C on the same day.
Heatwave conditions will remain for much of this week, with temperatures expected to remain in the high 30s across much of southern Queensland before falling back into the high 20s on the weekend.
Remaining cereal crops have started to hay off early as plants shut down with the heat.
Farmers have already turned attention to summer crop gains as they aim to take advantage of the high grain prices. Widespread soaking rains across southern Queensland are needed before farmers will plant sorghum crops.
Little to no rain has fallen across southern Queensland over the past 10 weeks. This comes on top of one of the driest winters in memory. Dalby has only registered 63mm of rain since the start of April which is about a third of the normal rainfall for this period.
Sorghum prices continue to edge higher as the wait for planting rains continues. New crop track sorghum bids gained $13 last to $306 track Brisbane, aided by the strength in wheat and barley. Gladstone sorghum was $3 higher at $243 port for a September delivery.
Old seasons sorghum remains scarce with traders bidding $320 delivered into Brisbane locations.
Wheat and barley bids pushed solidly higher last week on a wave of trader based buying. Stockfeed wheat jumped by $19 from the previous week to $344 delivered Downs markets. Feed barley gained $15 to $330 delivered Downs.
Stockfeed wheat and feed barley values into the Downs are now at the highs reached the 2015 highs.
Declining Australian winter crop prospects are now starting to push international wheat and barley prices higher. Global news agencies are reporting that some trading companies expect the Australian wheat crop will be less than 20 million tonnes, sharply lower than the USDA’s current projection of 22.5mt. Some are saying the crop could slip to as low as 18mt without good October rainfall to finish winter crops in south eastern Australia.
If the national wheat crop falls below 20mt, it would be the smallest harvest since 2007/08 when drought slashed output to just 13.8mt.
Australia’s wheat exports are also expected to be sharply less than the USDA’s current projection of 18.5mt. Some traders are saying Australia’s 2017/18 wheat exports are likely to be less than 14mt, which would also be the smallest in a decade.
Traders have been saying for some weeks that Queensland and NSW 2017/18 wheat exports are expected to be negligible. However, it’s now looking like a large proportion of the Victorian grain harvest may need to be drawn north to fill the supply void.
