THE FARMING community is all too aware of the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predictions of markedly lower than average winter rainfall across the majority of the nation’s cropping regions.
The response, however, varies from region to region.
Naturally, in parched Central West NSW the growers are pessimistic but in other dry spots, such as the Victorian Mallee there is still confidence in jagging enough rain for a profitable crop.
In spite of BOM forecasting tools predicting just a 16 per cent chance of seeing 100mm of rain over winter, compared to an average of 89mm, Ouyen, Victoria, farmer Ian Hastings was not dejected about seasonal prospects.
“It has been dry and it looks like continuing to be dry, but so far we have managed to use every drop of rain that has come and things are really not too bad,” Mr Hastings said.
“The little bit of rain we have had has been enough to get about 60pc of the crop out the ground and another 10mm would be enough to get the rest up.”
“The forecast is for a dry winter, but we don’t really need a lot of rainfall over June and July to keep things ticking along.
“In our area, spring rainfall is key and it is good to hear that the dry winter is not necessarily going to be followed by a dry spring.
“At present, given the very limited rainfall, things don’t look too bad and even if we only get small amounts of rain we should be OK until the days start lengthening around the end of July.”
However, Kikoira, NSW, farmer Mark Hoskinson said the mood was less upbeat in his area.
“A lot of the big farmers need to sow dry to manage the sowing program so the crop is in the ground but there has either been very patchy emergence or the crop is not up yet,” Mr Hoskinson said.
“I went through a spot between Temora and Yass last week where there was a tiny bit of green and it wasn’t too bad but a lot of other areas are really struggling.
“We’re seeing some cold nights and frosts and that is really knocking around the seedlings given they don’t have much moisture to draw upon.”
“Some people may look to resow due to the poor germination, others may just let the paddock go and see what happens, not expecting too much and then if stays dry then people may even look at spraying and fallowing.”
Mr Hoskinson said he had not planted crop this season.
“We still might if there is a decent break, looking a short season crops, we have grown decent crops planted in July in the past, but the odds certainly don’t look great at present.”
On the livestock front, he said graziers were trying to hold onto valuable breeding stock.
“There have been a lot of lambs dropping in the past month so you don’t really have a choice but to feed there but further out people recognise the value of breeding stock.
“It will just be a matter of sourcing feed and whether they are able to do that.”
At Narrabri, in NSW’s north-west, Andrew Carberry said given the shorter growing season in the region farmers still had a chance to plant a crop with a reasonable hope of success should rain arrive in the next month.
“It’s bone dry here at present but I’m optimistic it will rain and when it does we can still get a plant in, especially with the newer, shorter season varieties we have at our disposal now,” Mr Carberry said.
He said farmers in the region had escaped last year’s dry with relatively reasonable yields.
“It is dry now but at least we were able to get something back last year so we are in a better spot than some in NSW.”