International analysts are expecting another big year for Australian canola, however local forecasters are warning that dry conditions in Western Australia may soon impact production.
Western Australia, traditionally Australia's largest canola producing state, has endured a very dry start to the year, which has resulted in the Grains Industry of Western Australia (GIWA) issuing an estimate of 1.5 million tonnes of production for the 2024-25 season.
This is down on last season's 2.5m tonnes and well down on the record 2022-23 crop of 4.3m tonnes.
However, the dry conditions have not been enough to stop the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasting a fourth straight big year for Australian canola production.
Earlier in the month the FAS predicted a 6.5m tonne national crop, which would be 14pc above last year's 5.59 m tonne crop and the third largest on record.
Good subsoil moisture levels in critical production zones in NSW and Victoria were behind the bullish FAS estimate, along with the good prices on offer leading farmers to grow more canola at the expense of cereal crops.
FAS predicted Australian canola exports would rise by 16 percent to 5.1m tonnes.
Australian Oilseeds Federation executive officer Nick Goddard said that it was too early to make confident predictions about the year ahead.
"It is dry and dusty in Western Australia, but it often is at this time of year, there is still plenty of time for a good canola plant if they get the rain."
He said elsewhere farmers were relatively confident about canola production.
"There is good subsoil moisture and people have indicated they will be happy to plant canola."
The GIWA report said that growers were planning to swap to dry sowing cereals when they reach around 50 per cent or less of their planned canola hectares sown.
"This is a subtle change from recent dry sowing strategies, where a larger percentage of the planned canola crop would be sown dry before switching to cereals," the report said.
"With virtually no sub-soil moisture across the grain belt, except for the central eastern fringes, growers are holding back on committing larger areas of canola due to the risk associated with a late break to the season."