Adiós La Niña

La Niña waves goodbye as forecast points to drier than average March


Weather
Chance of above average rainfall in March. Reproduced with permission of the Bureau of Meteorology.

Chance of above average rainfall in March. Reproduced with permission of the Bureau of Meteorology.

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The wet weather pattern that never was is on its way out

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For what it is worth, the weak La Niña weather pattern impacting Australia is on the way out, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s autumn Climate Outlook.

La Niñas can bring above average rain, but this time the weather system was a bust.

While summer that brought above average rainfall to Western Australia and the Top End, below average rainfall was the story across eastern Australia, with drought in large parts of the inland.

March is expected to be drier than average for much of the interior extending into northern Queensland, while there is an increased chance for a wetter than average March in Tasmania.

The year started with expectations of some rain relief for drought hit areas, which ultimately failed to eventuate.

Chance of 25mm of rain in March. Reproduced with permission of the Bureau of Meteorology.

Chance of 25mm of rain in March. Reproduced with permission of the Bureau of Meteorology.

The Bureau of Meteorology's manager of long-range forecasting, Dr Andrew Watkins, said while a weak La Niña pattern remains in the tropical Pacific, it is in decline and is expected to end in August.

"This La Niña has only had a weak influence on Australian climate, particularly when compared to the last La Niña (2010-12) when Australia experienced its wettest two years on record," Dr Watkins said.

"Historically, autumns following the end of weak La Niña events have been drier than average, however record-high water temperatures in the Tasman Sea may increase rainfall from any east coast lows that form later in the autumn and winter," he said.

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