IT IS AN annual thing, the calendar rolls around to Anzac Day and if it hasn’t rained, farmers’ eyes start looking to the heavens.
This year has been no different and in many areas, such as central NSW, there is a palpable feeling of pessimism, due to the lack of subsoil moisture and what is perceived as a late break.
However, cropping systems experts have pointed out the average date of the autumn break for most of the nation’s cropping regions is much later than April 25.
“The Anzac Day break is a bit of a myth,” said senior lecturer in cropping agronomy at LaTrobe University James Hunt.
“It is certainly the optimum time for a break to allow farmers to get the crop up nice and early, but history shows in most areas the actual break is later.”
Dr Hunt said records at Longerenong, in Victoria’s Wimmera, showed an average break date of May 20.
“There has been a lot of talk about worries for the season ahead, but at present there are not many people who need to be worried – if we’re having the same conversation in a month’s time it will be a different story, but at present we are not losing out on yield.”
He pointed to yield data from trials that showed most varieties reached a ‘sweet spot’ for yield when planted in early May.
“The trial work was conducted around Wagga Wagga but it would be applicable to much of southern Australia,” he said.
With reasonable subsoil moisture in Queensland, Dr Hunt said the only areas where farmers had grounds for concern as yet was through central and northern NSW.
“They rely in part on stored moisture and there is not much there and the break is not going to be especially early.”
Dale Grey, Agriculture Victoria climate agronomist, said the data showed for major cropping regions only elevated or southern areas could truly expect an April break.
“At Rutherglen (on the border with NSW in north-eastern Victoria), an average break is the third or fourth week in April but that is the exception rather than the rule,” Mr Grey said.
“Somewhere like Berriwillock, in the Mallee, or Kyabram in the Goulburn Valley, it is more generally the second or third week of May.”
“South of the divide in Victoria or in the higher rainfall, more easterly parts of NSW you could see a break earlier but for the majority of cropping zones May, rather than April, is the norm for sustained rain.”
Dr Hunt said farmers would manage the later break by tweaking rotations.
“It is a normal thing to watch what happens and perhaps if the season is getting shorter to switch into shorter season cultivars or perhaps dropping crops that like to be up early such as canola, but at present farmers still have time for all options.”
Mr Grey said recent seasons had seen average or early breaks.
“It’s a bit of a case of remembering what you see in recent years, we haven’t really had a June break since 2012 or so.
“Unfortunately over the years there have been plenty of June breaks, we may hate them in the grains industry but they are a reality.”