The diplomatic skills of Prime Minister Scott Morrison will be tested this week as he navigates a series of tricky events with major Asian agricultural trading partners.
Mr Morrison has admitted a key tariff-reducing trade deal with Indonesia had hit a hurdle, after the Muslim nation reacted to his suggestion Australia could move its Israel embassy to Jerusalem.
It was hoped that Indonesia would sign the free trade deal before Christmas, so it could come into effect early next year.
The deal has to be scrutinised by parliament for at least five weeks before it’s ratified.
RELATED READING:
It now appears unlikely there will be sufficient time before the election is due, on May 18.
Starting with the East Asia Summit today (Thursday), Mr Morrison has a big week of international diplomacy, including talks with the US and Japan and ending on Sunday in Papua New Guinea for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit.
The Australian Financial Review reported Mr Pence will double down on his tough talk at the APEC Summit, at which Chinese President Xi Jinping will also speak, and outline a new partnership with Australia and Japan for infrastructure development in the Pacific.
Last month Mr Pence flagged the US would be more active in the region and put China on notice over its “emboldened” military aggression, abuses of domestic minorities and trade policies that profit at the US’ expense.
“To advance our vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, we’re building new and stronger bonds with nations that share our values across the region,” Mr Pence said.
Some China watchers have warned that the Asian superpower’s aggressive trade practices and pursuit of regional influence will come to a head in the near future, arguing China and the US could demand trading partners enter exclusive deals,
For Australia would mean a choice between the $116 billion in exports to China, including $13b in ag commodities, and our trade and defence ties to the US.
Leading Australian foreign policy expert Michael Fullilove outlined his path forward for Australia this week.
He said Australia should maintain its independence and push back against the superpowers’ breaches of international rules.
China has pursued aggressive territorial expansion and foreign espionage, while Donald Trump’s autocratic, anti-free trade instincts are increasingly on display.
But Australia cannot side with China and abandon military ties with the US.
“In the long run it is China, not the United States, that poses the greatest challenge to the existing order. China’s rise makes the alliance more, not less, important,” Mr Fullilove said.
Australia should encourage the US to maintain a “robust presence” in the Asia-Pacific region and work vigorously to bolster trade, military and strategic ties with our regional neighbours and other middle powers like the UK and France, he said.
“Australia’s time will likely come. When it does, Scott Morrison or Bill Shorten should stand up for Australian values,” Mr Fullilove said.
It remains to be seen if Australia can pull off this balancing act. We’re already made tough choices.
Earlier this year Chinese telco Huawei was barred from the rollout of Australia’s 5G mobile networks over security concerns.
Last week government blocked a $13b bid from Chinese company CK Asset Holdings for APA Group, which owns more than half of our gas pipeline network.
