The Female Slaughter Ratio (FSR) has been running hot.
May was the third consecutive month with a FSR above 58 per cent. We know that females have been making up a larger than normal proportion of slaughter, but the absolute numbers give another angle on the decline of the herd.
For the year to May, there were 1.914 million head of females slaughtered (Figure 1).
The female kill in the first five months has only been higher during the herd liquidation of 2015. Back then, the high kill was also driven by dry weather, but we were coming off a 29 million head herd.
At the end of June 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) pegged the herd at 27.1 million head, so now more cows are being killed out of a smaller pool.
In 2018, the female herd stood at 12.15 million head, only slightly lower than 2017, but up on the recent low of 11.45 million set in 2016.
The female herd was already relatively low, and slaughter has obviously been very high for the first five months of the year.
The crucial question to ask now is, how might this affect the female herd this year?
We have seen 16pc of the female herd slaughtered in the first five months. This is the highest level in at least 40 years.
In 2015, the first five months saw 14.6pc of the female herd slaughtered, and this precipitated a 14pc fall in the female herd over the following two years.
What does this mean?
We are only looking at the first five months of the year so the female cull does have time to slow down.
However, the numbers here give a good indication of where the female herd is headed over the next couple of years.
A conservative estimate would put the female herd decrease at 14pc over the next two years.
This wipes off 1.7 million head of the female herd taking it back to 10.4 million head, the lowest level since 1988.
This would see serious impacts on the calf crop, cattle supply and prices.