IT IS one of the first sectors to feel the pinch when the big dries hit, but equally the cropping sector is often the quickest agricultural industry to put dollars back in farmers' accounts when things improve.
With this in mind the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) is predicting the grains industry will be one of the leading drivers of recovery from a disappointing 2019-20, which was some 18 per cent down in volume on the record 2016-17 season.
This is easy to see when winter crop production is a thumping 49pc down on that big 16-17 season.
The ABARES team this year, however, is flagging a return to more normal planting and production based on a return to average rainfall and the already impressive bank of moisture to be found in some key growing regions of the nation.
ABARES analyst Amelia Brown said grain growers were likely to continue to be rewarded with high domestic prices with the tight, drought induced supply and demand balance sheet unlikely to return to normal immediately.
"Domestic grain stocks are historically low following an increase in feed demand and three consecutive years of below average production, including last year, the lowest in 12 years," Ms Brown said.
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She said the drought induced demand only represented the speeding up of an increase in appetite for feed grain domestically that had been occurring over the past decade, spurred by high livestock values.
More broadly, Ms Brown forecast a slight rise in world wheat prices, up 2.3 per cent to $US225 a tonne, primarily due to lower production in the Black Sea region, the European Union and the US.
Overall world wheat production for 2020-21 is expected to increase a fraction to 766 million, due to a better season in India, where there is a record plant in terms of hectares, and the expected improvements in the two major southern hemisphere producers Australia and Argentina, although newly implemented export taxes in Argentina may influence farmers' planting intentions.
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Other notable international trends include the ongoing decline in the US winter wheat crop, set to drop for a seventh consecutive season due to low profitability and the rise of alternatives planted at a different time such as corn.
The drop in plantings is so dramatic that this year's winter wheat crop in the US is the smallest since 1909.
In the burgeoning Black Sea region Ms Brown is forecasting steady plantings but increased production in line with agronomic advances.
Further out, Ms Brown's outlook for pricing was not so rosy.
In the medium term, in spite of increasing demand, she said prices were likely to drop slightly in real terms due to increased production.
However, in good news for Aussie wheat growers, international demand is set to grow and milling wheat, with few substitutes is likely to remain especially sought after.
The demand for feed wheat will depend on the balance sheet for other feed sources such as barley or corn.
South-east Asia has been a massive growth market from 2010 to 2020, more than doubling its imports, reflecting growing populations and the expansion of intensive livestock industries.
This growth is forecast by ABARES to continue, albeit at a slower rate.