It was announced this morning that the Lower Darling water licence holders have received a general security allocation of 30 per cent.
NSW Murray irrigators remain on zero per cent, but their chances of being given an allocation at the start of the new water year are improving.
There have been minor flood warnings for the Murray River upstream of Lake Hume in recent days, 38 gigalitres flowing into Hume Dam.
Dartmouth Dam is currently 47.14 per cent full, with an increase of 40GL in the past week.
Today's Water Allocation update for the NSW Murray and Lower Darling, released by the NSW Department of Industry, said there was an 20GL improvement for the NSW Murray due to above-average rainfall for April.
This was on top of an 80GL improvement noted in the Water Allocation statement released on April 15.
How much more water is needed for an allocation?
So what will it take for NSW Murray irrigators to receive an allocation? The answer is around 100GL more in inflows.
General security allocations are only released once the High Priority Water Needs for 2020/2021 are met.
High Priority Water includes water for towns, planned environmental water, domestic, stock, high security and general security carryover water.
The April 15 Water Allocation statement said it was predicted that NSW Murray needed a total of 400GL of water to meet 2020/21 High Priority Water needs, another 115GL on top of the 285GL already saved.
However, the statement also made clear that the majority of inflows may not translate into NSW Murray resources, due mainly to increased NSW obligations under the Murray Darling Basin Agreement if dry conditions persist.
The Department explained a NSW obligation under the plan was if South Australia's share of water available is less than 696GL (it's conveyance entitlement), as is currently possible, upper states were required to meet the shortfall.
Is NSW putting more aside for High Priority needs than previous years?
Last year, the April Water Allocation statement showed that they had only 85GL saved for High Priority Water needs for the 2019/2020 year.
The Department said on July 1 2019 they had a shortfall of around 180GL. They said therefore, it was clear that considerably more would need to be saved in 2019/20 to avoid another significant shortfall on 1 July 2020.
The shortfall in recent years has meant conveyance has not received its required 50pc allocation on 1 July, but rather has received it during the year from incremental improvements.
Dam levels are below what they were this time last year
Rural Co Deniliquin water broker Matthew Nathan said despite recent inflows, the water year opening with a general security allocation was far from assured.
"I'd still be wary at the moment because we still have less water in the dams then we had at the same time last year," Mr Nathan
"This season is not over yet and if it keeps raining hopefully the outlook will be more positive."
In April 2019 Dartmouth Dam was 62 per cent full, Hume Dam was 17 per cent full and Lake Victoria was 29 per cent full.
This April Dartmouth Dam was 47 per cent full, Hume Dam was only 14 per cent full and Lake Victoria was 34 per cent full.
Of those Murray storages, NSW owned 37 per cent overall (as of April 14), the rest is owned by Victoria and South Australia.
The Department said this percentage of storage water ownership changed all the time depending on which State is using their share of water compared to the others and which State is capturing water in storage relative to the others.
Inflows impact water market
While recent inflows may not have assured a general security allocation, they have caused the temporary water market to drop by up to 25 per cent.
At the start of the week water was selling in the NSW Murray (below choke) for $400/megalitre, by today it was down to $310/ML.
Mr Nathan said he thought prices would stay low until the end of the water year (June 30).
"I think it would stay low, buyers will be reluctant, they'll sit on their hands when the season's this good," Mr Nathan said.