Despite taking a hit in premium meat and seafood markets, and the wool, cotton and live cattle sectors, Australian farm export trends have hardly missed a beat during the coronavirus emergency.
Official trade data shows agricultural exports have been on par with what would otherwise have been expected during early 2020.
The trend so far has been remarkably positive, especially given the World Trade Organisation has tipped global trade values to slide as much as a fifth this year.
Future prospects for Australia's agricultural trade in the post-pandemic recovery phase also look relatively solid, according to research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.
It reported most farm exports continued to leave Australia and reach consumers as intended, despite disruptions to supply chains, labour services and logistics activities.
Self sufficiency hazards
Trade conditions were, however, changing for exporters as a consequence of COVID-19, including rising import and export restrictions among WTO countries courtesy of self sufficiency reactions to coronavirus.
The national commodity forecaster warned creeping trade protectionism trends, heightened by the COVID-19 pandemic, could exacerbate and prolong global food supply shortages and price fluctuations.
By late April, 80 countries had introduced export prohibitions or restrictions according to the WTO, although ABARES reported no food imports into Australia had been affected, despite food industry fears about access to Asian rice.
Shrinking global trade
The WTO has forecast world merchandise trade volumes could fall as much as 32 per cent this year, with the value of total global trade set to drop by 8pc to 20pc.
ABARES' head of forecasting and trade Dr Jared Greenville said fortunately export supply chain and logistics disruptions observed in the pandemic's early stages had benefited from governments' and industry's nimble responses to keep product moving, including freight assistance measures and by encouraging migrant labour to stay where needed.
Total meat and live animal exports were actually running about 40pc above the five-year average and dairy exports to March were also tracking about 25pc above.
RELATED READING
However, seafood exports and other high end meat products normally destined for restaurants and cafes had been hurt by community lockdowns world-wide and were expected to feel more impact from less discretionary spending.
Seafood exports alone copped a big fall in sales to China estimated to have cost Australian exporters about $200 million for 2019-20, even though February's 72pc export slump was followed by a slight March recovery for crustaceans and molluscs.
As economic activity declines and global incomes are reduced, products consumed through more discretionary spending have been more significantly affected
- Dr Jared Greenville , ABARES
The ABARES' study noted high quality products and food service lines would likely remain affected if they could not be shifted into new market segments such as supermarkets and butcher shops.
However, reports from the red meat sector indicated it simply was not viable to move some high value product such as premium priced grainfed beef into retail channels because of the sharp price discounts involved and higher logistics costs.
Wool, cotton and timber products would also feel significant impacts as consumers delayed purchases of new clothes and other durable products
"As economic activity declines and global incomes are reduced, products consumed through more discretionary spending have been more significantly affected," Dr Greenville said.
Live export adjusting
However, his report also noted while live animal exports had felt softening demand from key buyers such as Indonesia and Vietnam because wet markets were restricted and absorbing fewer cattle fattened from local feedlots, the live export trade's values remained above five-year averages after historically high peaks late last year.
ABARES also suggested despite a slowdown in live cattle sales to Indonesia, and some skilled labour shortages on ships, Australian processed meat exports were up as more imports went into supermarkets.
Other Australian livestock by-product exports, worth about $250m a month, were still in line with five-year sales averages, although skin and hide exports($66m/month) had slipped since February, continuing a trend started in 2018-19.
Horticulture exports were tracking in line with 2019 trends when demand was at record levels.
In fact, March 2020 exports were 17pc higher than a year earlier.
March oilseed exports were 22pc above the long term average, although grain exports in general were down, largely due to the drought-reduced national crop.
Persistence of demand was seen during the global financial crisis when agricultural trade remained steady
- Dr Jared Greenville
Dr Greenville said while the pandemic had triggered a global economic downturn, it was unlikely to have a significant impact on demand for essential food products.
"This persistence of demand was seen during the global financial crisis when agricultural trade remained steady," he said.
New trade normals
The pandemic was also driving changes which could remain part of the future trade landscape, including higher demand for stable and safe food, and consumers buying more online.
"Australia's agricultural sector and trade profile have a long history of adaptation, evolution and growth in the face of external challenges and pressures," he said
There was also a greater market awareness of supply chain risks and the dangers of concentrated supply hubs for certain goods and services.
"Recent OECD analysis showed in some cases greater diversity in supply chains boosted competitiveness and market performance."
- Start the day with all the big news in agriculture! Click here to sign up to receive our daily Farmonline.