The Australian wool market continues to surge back towards recovery from the COVID-19-induced hit.
Notching up a 95 cents a kilogram rise in a week again surprised everyone, as the small flurry of orders from Chinese processors - coupled with such a small supply - created more than a bit of panic in the auction rooms.
Trade players are aware of the wool market's renowned volatility and are expecting an up-and-down ride in October as usual.
But, thankfully, most of the movement is still being energised by the recovery.
Wool prices arguably went far too low back in July-August, and the market as a whole is still pushing back towards a reasonable level.
Having such a small supply base at present, particularly for Merino wool, makes even a small positive step turn into a big jump upwards.
Apart from those who sold at the low point, almost everyone is glad to see prices getting back to a more sustainable basis.
The market is still $4/kg down from the same point last year, but is looking a lot healthier than it was two months ago.
From a technical point of view, the market has now recovered 50 per cent of its losses at the superfine end and 25 per cent for the medium Merino segment.
Typically, when a market recovers from the low point, it achieves a 50 per cent recovery then takes a breather before deciding if it can go higher.
The trade had been expecting a pause last week, or perhaps next week. But the momentum looks like continuing for at least another week at this stage.
As Michael Avery, from Southern Aurora Markets, pointed out - the wool market has moved by more than 30c/kg cents in a day on 40 per cent of the auction days so far this selling season.
That does make the premium required for a minimum price hedge seem fairly insignificant, especially given the external macro-economic and political dysfunction around the globe at present.
For a smooth upward trajectory to continue, all of the industry requires is a steady pattern of increasing demand.
At the moment, this seems to be concentrated in only two major sources - sweaters and uniforms - and both from China.
With colder than usual weather forecast to move across China this winter, consumers there are being encouraged to cover up - and enterprising retailers will no doubt be promoting the virus busting abilities of natural fibres.
The sweater market in China, particularly light weight garments which do not need to be removed every time one walks from outside to inside, appear to be 'on trend' in the country this season.
Cashmere, although also much cheaper than last year, is still priced well above the reach of many consumers.
So, a blend with superfine Merino wool makes the garment affordable to a wider selection of people, and arguably makes it better by adding longer, stronger fibres.
The bulk of Australia's superfine Merino wool, regardless of specification, appears destined for this market at present.
Although 17-micron prices are now only a mere $2/kg below the same point last year, they are still well below other noble fibres, such as cashmere - the sourcing of which is troublesome to say the least this season.
The COVID-19 pandemic obviously closed borders and disrupted visits by traders, and the economic downturn has seen governments in Mongolia and Iran - two major producers of cashmere - disrupt the flow of cashmere by trying to support local farmers.
Tariffs and export bans, as well as floor prices, have all been used to try and maintain farmer's income with varying degrees of success.
The Australian wool industry has seen first-hand how disruptive these sorts of mechanisms can ultimately become.
The other major source of demand at present is the Chinese uniform industry.
While nothing out of the ordinary has been reported in terms of volume of orders, or timing, some in the trade have apparently been holding back on purchases of greasy wool, just trying to eke out a few more cents to make a profit in what is typically a low margin, high volume business for manufacturers.
Ultimately, the time has come for some of the major orders to begin to be filled, such as the Chinese Army - which is obviously a large number.
The manufacturers have had to step on a large amount of greasy wool quickly, thus creating a lot more activity in a low supply auction market in Australia.
Perhaps the sweater market in China has another month or so to run as the retail season swings into gear and sales opportunities such as 'singles day' and the like provide a boost in one of the world's few COVID-19-free consumer environments.
The uniform orders will continue to roll though, although there are no signs of government intentions to boost purchasing numbers above 'normal'`either.
Other sources of demand are desperately anticipated.
There are some glimmers of hope that Indian processors are reopening and needing to purchase raw material.
European processors are obviously battling a second wave of COVID-19 at present and many are running on short time, or with government mandated reduced work forces to assist with pandemic management plans.
So, for the processors of the world, finding a market for their goods at present outside of the Chinese domestic scene is a difficult situation.
Yarn and fabric production should be gearing-up to full speed at this time of year, but the uncertainty being transmitted back along the pipeline from very nervous retailers is causing many to stop and look.
This makes the topmakers, carbonisers and scourers more than a little nervous.
Yet the greasy wool market, at this stage, shows no sign of slowing.
Which one is the first to blink will be interesting.
If the flow of wool to market remains controlled and steady, and there is no external shock from overseas governments, we could just hold on long enough to maintain the trend.
Conversely, if the Chinese industry has enough wool, Donald Trump upsets the apple cart, and Boris Johnson upsets the European Union, all bets are off - and those who hedged their next clip will be grinning.