There was a very good Merino wool market in Australia last week, but values for crossbred types were pretty ordinary.
The two different fibres are currently following diverging trends in response to clear demand signals from end users.
At some point, the stars might align and both will move in sync again.
Or, perhaps, this is signalling a more permanent disassociation.
Prices for the Merino categories all rose last week, generally by about 30 cents a kilogram, and only the broadest were slightly lower - as buyers filled orders.
Conversely, the crossbred market continued to be lacklustre and category indicators dropped by 15-20c/kg. That is a fairly hefty percentage on a $3-4-value wool.
The overall Australian Wool Exchange Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) was up by 9c/kg in local currency terms to gain back most of what it lost the previous week.
Highlighting the vagaries of the international currency market, wool in US Dollar values rose by 15c/kg, but Euro prices only increased by 3c/kg for the same basket indicator.
In South Africa, buyers dusted off their clip-boards again after a fortnight on the beach.
Their market obviously needed to catch up to the Australian price movements of the past two weeks.
So, values at sales in the Cape closed marginally lower in US Dollar terms.
The bulk of the South African catalogue comprised medium-length wools, given the propensity for six or eight-month interval shearing patterns there.
There are only a couple of sales left there - on a fortnightly basis - before its mid-year recess, and the country's contribution to feeding the mills in China and Europe is quickly falling - which is in-line with its usual seasonal pattern.
This will direct more buying pressure to the Australian auction in the lead-up to the winter wool auction recess here.
Sale volumes across Australia have gained plenty of attention recently, with much higher levels than expected for this time of year causing a lot of confusion further downstream.
Despite the dominance of Chinese buying in the past 12 months, and subdued export of product from there as other markets struggle, there seems to be virtually zero stock build-up of Merino types in China.
Superfine Merino wooltop, in particular, is flying off the shelves as spinners and knitters gear-up for their main production season.
All of the early stage scouring and combing mills are busy with orders on hand.
Although, some are now reporting that it has been difficult to find new orders to work on - past the current surge.
There is still a body of work to process, and time to find, some new orders. But the clock is definitely ticking for the current season.
Superfine Merino types did encounter a degree of price resistance earlier this month.
But the market has now moved past that, and Merino measuring less than 18.5-micron is once again the area of strongest demand.
This is in a season where supply is much lower than that of last year due to rainfall. So, prices will continue to be strong.
Medium Merino wools are performing quite well, and will continue to do so for those lines with the right specifications.
But the scarcity of supply is simply not there like it is at the finer end.
So, price rises will be a little more subdued.
Crossbred wools, unfortunately, continue to drift and there are no immediate signs of improvement.
The market is awash with old stock from South America, which was dumped into China before COVID-19 restrictions closed borders.
Much of this remains unsold, or at least unprocessed.
Australian and New Zealand crossbred wool is so cheap and plentiful compared to Merino lines, that many traders have been taking a punt and stocking some.
The new season's European wools are just starting to flow on to the market, further adding to the growing pile of crossbred lines.
Some entrepreneurial types are trying to promote building insulation products made from this coarser wool, but it is only viable at - or below - the current price point.
So, it is not really what the wool growing fraternity is looking for.
We really need a surge in hand-knitting, or army great coats - or a similar new fashion item to fake-fur - to use up this stock and create a bit of price recovery in the market.
Perhaps the more environmentally aware, quality conscious consumer will one day wake up to the benefits of sleeping under a natural product that is so much better than curling up under a bunch of plastic bags.
Labour shortages all over the world seem to be a concern.
From tourism operators in far north Queensland, to mid-west America and Jiangsu Province in China, companies report they are struggling to find enough workers to fill all their positions.
Not having the ability to maximise capacity is preventing mills from catching up on late orders, and the ongoing supply chain malfunctions in the global shipping industry makes for a very tense manufacturing pipeline.
Every industry across the globe is feeling this to some degree, and hopefully the wool industry is working far enough ahead to not run into a blockage.
The ability of Chinese early stage processors to deliver on time to European customers was already under strain with the low labour numbers since the Chinese New Year, and with the shipping industry malfunctions it is stretching out further and further.
What used to be a four-week journey by vessel is now eight to 10 weeks and, of course, the freight cost has tripled or quadrupled.
So far, European spinning and knitting mills have been able to find enough raw material to continue to operate.
But, no doubt, the pressure will keep building until the summer holiday period kicks-in and this may give logistics channels a chance to catch up.
Just how inflationary this supply chain problem becomes is an unknown at present. But it is starting to ring alarm bells.
Some processors and wholesalers are absorbing the increased costs, and many are passing on the increased charges to their customers.
As the price of goods rises, more pressure mounts for wage increases - and interest rate increases typically follow to dampen the growth.
World leaders have pumped so much money into stimulating the global economy again, to have it curtailed prematurely would be diabolical - and such a waste of taxpayer funds.
Hopefully the current upswing in prices can be managed, sustained and provide a stable platform for the next leg-up, rather than a reversal.
Much of this will obviously depend on consumer confidence, as we know happy individuals are more likely to purchase discretionary items like woollen clothing.
