Seats to watch: Party leaders spend time and attention in the Hunter

On the other hand, when a leader is sighted around a seat generally considered safe, the party is trying to ward off trouble.

Even before the election kicked off, both Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce and Labor leader Anthony Albanese spent a lot of time in and around the NSW seat of Hunter, and were both back in the region on the same day in the first week of the campaign.

The electorate stretches from the coal mines of the Hunter Valley to the outer suburbs of the Greater Newcastle region and the shore line of western Lake Macquarie.

It's been Labor heartland for more than a century and for the last 38 years it's been held by the Fitzgibbon family - current MP Joel Fitzgibbon succeeded his father Eric in 1996.

As far as Labor seats go, it's been about as safe as it gets. So why would the Nationals think they have a chance? There are several factors at play.

The Nationals first identified Hunter as a potential target after the 2019 election, when Mr Fitzgibbon's vote dropped nearly 10 per cent. It also saw the largest One Nation vote in the country, with candidate Stuart Bonds pulling in almost 22 per cent of the primary.

After preferences, the Nationals reaped 47 per cent of the vote, just behind Labor's 53pc, pushing the seat into marginal territory.

Before Mr Joyce retook leadership of the Nationals in mid-2021, he and his backbenchers supporters, such as Senator Matt Canavan, had spend time in Hunter running an unofficial election campaign, a power play to provoke a question from other Nationals MPs: if Mr Joyce could garner support in a Labor stronghold as a backbencher, what could he do as leader?

Mr Joyce has been forced to continue the gambit - one of his selling points to the party room was his campaign appeal and a promise to aggressively try to expand the party's territory at the upcoming election.

Secondly, Mr Fitzgibbon is retiring at this election, and in politics when a long-standing MP retires, there is always a sense of vulnerability.

However, Labor has sought to quell any sign of weakness with a strong candidate, five-time Olympian and Commonwealth Games gold medallist Dan Repacholi.

A fitter and turner by trade, who has previously worked as a coal miner and currently works in a coal-adjacent industry, Mr Repacholi is an ideal candidate for the Labor faithful of the Hunter.

His appointment was not without controversy. Mr Repacholi had only been a member of the party for three weeks before his pre-selection, which was a "captains call" by the party's executive team, a move that ruffled some feathers locally.

Mr Repacholi almost immediately found himself the centre of unwelcome attention, and was forced to delete his social media accounts and apologise, after distasteful posts were revealed, ranging from calling India a "shithole" to telling coal opponents to "sit in the dark and freeze" in winter.

But the party has rallied around him, with Mr Fitzgibbon has backed Mr Repacholi as a "normal larrikin Australian", while Mr Albanese attended his campaign launch in October.

The Labor leader also launched several of the party's policies in the Hunter this year in three pre-election trips including funding to restore services for the region's GP Access After Hours clinics, and has vowed to spend more time in the region as the election draws near.

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On day four of the campaign, Mr Albanese was in the coal and wine region of the electorate, to announce the first of 50 clinics to be built in a $135m-plan to ease emergency department waiting times.

Under Labor's plan, Cessnock Hospital will host a Medicare Urgent Care Clinic, a bulk-billed facility that will treat patients needing urgent care including for broken bones, minor burns and stitches for cuts, freeing up emergency departments to focus on life-threatening situations.

He also promised Labor's climate policy would create jobs in the regions without losing mining jobs, pointing out resource companies such as BHP and Rio Tinto had already adopted a net-zero 2050 target.

"Not only can we guarantee it, our modelling guaranteed it. We will have the safeguard mechanism that was established by Tony Abbott as part of the 2015 plan and we will implement that," he said.

The Nationals have pre-selected James Thomson, a community relations officer at Maitland Christian School. Although Mr Thomson is not the stereotypical working-class candidate that appeals to Hunter voters, he has run a grassroots campaign and has been supported by visits from 10 Nationals politicians over the past year.

Resource Minister Keith Pitt spent the first day of the election in the Hunter with Mr Thomson, visiting an open-cut coal mine near Singleton, spruiking the Coalition's support of the resource sector.

On the same day as Mr Albanese was touring the Hunter's inland, Mr Joyce was making announcements along its coast, promising a $56 million in funding to ease congestion at Mandalong Road, Morisset, after Labor committed $30 million to the project last month.

Mr Joyce also announced $55m for terminal upgrades at Newcastle Airport - only moments later, when asked about it at a press conference an hour away in Cessnock, Mr Albanese instantly agreed to match the funding.

Mr Thomson's campaign has been helped along with millions in pre-election funding announcements - an $80m extension of the M1, $10m for the Hunter Sports Centre, $5m to redevelop local tourist attraction Maitland Gaol and $600 million for the Kurri Kurri gas plant.

Although much of the funding lies in the neighbouring electorates of Paterson and Newcastle, the interconnected nature of the region means Hunter residents will reap the benefits of the announcements.

But the Nationals chances are not as good as they appeared after the last election. Much of the swing against Labor was put down to its confusing policy on energy and coal, which changed depending on which electorate the party was speaking from.

There was also a perception Mr Fitzgibbon was spending too much time playing politics in Canberra rather than advocating for local issues.

Mr Fitzgibbon spent much of the past three years trying to rectify both concerns. He has been a loud and proud advocate of coal and often clashed with fellow Labor MPs over climate policy, which led to him quitting the shadow cabinet and dropping his ag portfolio to sit on the back bench.

The National Party was also hedging its bets on the influence of One Nation's popular candidate to split Labor's vote - Mr Bonds, a well spoken coal miner, was viewed by many in the Hunter as a viable alternative and it was believed he would build on his successful 2019 campaign.

However, Mr Bonds has since left One Nation, quitting the party over its support for controversial new industrial relations laws, which may halve casual miners' compensation claims in class actions for working regular hours. He'll be standing as an independent and sap some votes from all sides of politics.

One Nation has since pre-selected Singleton businessman Dale McNamara Singleton businessman, who stood at the Upper Hunter state by-election election, polling 12pc of the vote.

Regardless, if the amount of time and attention the leaders of the National and Labor parties are giving the Hunter, it will be an interesting battleground to watch.

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