IT HAS been a roller-coaster growing season for Australia's cotton producers but leading into the defoliation period prior to harvest the industry is upbeat about prospects.
"We were a little nervous at Christmas, it had been cool and we were worried about missing out on some of that optimum flowering period but things turned around nicely and the crops are now looking good in the final part of the growing season," said Cotton Seed Distributors (CSD) NSW extension and development manager Jorian Millyard.
Mr Millyard's sentiments have been backed by the latest report from the Australia Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) crop report, which found that there is likely to be a monster jump in Australian cotton production in 2021-22.
ABARES is forecasting a 91 per cent year on year increase in production, to 1.16 million tonnes, with a 75pc increase in Queensland and a 94pc rise in NSW, on the proviso of a relatively dry finish.
Mr Millyard said there were good plantings on the back of high allocations of irrigation water, while the wet summer has meant dryland cotton has also come into its own.
He said gross margins were likely to be healthy based on current high cotton prices.
Cotton producers received another boost this week with hefty gains in international futures on the back of a big lift in US exports to China.
With cotton from China's major production region in Xinjiang province under embargo in many places China is being forced to look elsewhere for demand for its textile industry
This includes imports from the US at present and most likely Australia once our crop comes on line.
However, while things are looking rosy now, Mr Millyard said there had been plenty of nervy moments along the way.
"Different valleys have had different issues, but we've had a few issues with flooding and the associated disease pressures you see with these wet years."
"In terms of the flooding the Namoi was probably the worst hit along with the western Gwydir, while up into Queensland we've obviously seen the issues in the Lockyer Valley in recent weeks and there was some nasty hail late last year that caused isolated severe damage, however overall things are good."
Mr Millyard said while there had been slightly less than optimum heat on the crop the absence of extreme temperatures had made up for it.
"We've had a really mild summer and the crop hasn't had to withstand that intense heat we can sometimes get, so that has been a real positive for growth in terms of things like flower development and boll size."
"We've been quite surprised when we're looking at the crop given we haven't quite had the heat unit accumulation you'd ideally want that we're finding crops in such forward condition."
"We're behind the ten year mean, but not having the heat and not having those hot nights that can lead to pollen blast has more than made up for that."
Mr Millyard said the defoliation period was rapidly approaching.
"Some guys could go now, but it will probably kick off in earnest towards the end of March."
"With this cool season we're conscious of advising growers not to drag the crop out too long or else you start running into cold weather at harvest and the associated risks of harvest rain."
He said disease and pests had been active in-crop but had largely been manageable.
"We've had reports of white fly numbers building up in places but given the cooler March we're seeing that shouldn't be a problem, although we are keeping an eye on the forecast given temperatures are tipped to rise to 35 degrees plus in some of the valleys in the next week."
Disease-wise he said alternaria, a fungal disease that can present primarily in broadleaf crops, was causing some issues, but had been managed with fungicide.
Looking ahead, he said the industry was gearing up for an equipment squeeze over harvest.
"We've seen a few contractors exit the industry during the drought, there is more of a spread in terms of geographic area where cotton is planted so it is something the industry as a whole is keeping an eye on."
Labour and equipment availability will also be important.
"With COVID restriction on imports playing a role, there are concerns with new pickers coming into the country and the labour and time it takes to get them together and ready for harvest."
He said there would likely be two peaks to harvest.
"We had two planting windows this summer, there was the early planted dryland cotton in October and then there was an opportunity to double crop out of a winter crop in December."
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