Despite fast rising agricultural input costs and supply chain frustrations, the value of Australian farmgate production is set to top $80 billion for a second straight year.
In turn, the value of our agricultural exports is also headed for a record $65b in the new financial year, according to latest forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.
ABARES executive director, Dr Jared Greenville, said favourable seasonal conditions and high global prices meant the sector was in line to produce $80.4b in commodities in 2022-23.
The bullish result - slightly down on the current $81b record, but well up from $59b in 2017-18 - is reassuringly close to the farm sector's goal of achieving $100b in agricultural output by 2030.
"Record crop exports are forecast to be worth $39.8b, as Australian farmers are on track for another exceptional season," Dr Greenville said.
"Exceptionally high grain prices are expected due to poor seasons for major producers overseas and the unfortunate side effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on world grain markets.
"Soaring fertiliser costs and access to farm labour and imported machinery will continue to challenge many farm businesses, but Australia has shown throughout the pandemic that we are a reliable and resilient food producer and exporter."
RELATED READING
Although disruptions to global supply chains were expected to continue challenging exporters, the flow of goods to overseas markets was not expected to be meaningfully restricted.
For example, in the year to March a combined monthly average of 3 million tonnes of wheat, barley and canola were shipped abroad.
The big grain export effort matched records set in the wake of the the then-record 2016-17 harvest.
The total forecast value of the combined agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors rises to $86.2b when strong performances by the forestry and fishing sectors are added to the equation.
"This is just below the record for 2021-22," Mr Greenville said.
However, he cautioned that while Australia had benefitted from favourable growing conditions in the past few years, there were longer term risks at play in global markets, notably trade restrictions imposed by many countries in response to rising food prices.
"Trade restrictions increase global price volatility and reduce the confidence countries place in buying food from global markets," he said.
"Reduced confidence in international markets is a concern for Australian producers as they are central to both global food security and the long-term prosperity of Australian agriculture."
Start the day with all the big news in agriculture! Sign up below to receive our daily Farmonline newsletter.
Andrew Marshall
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
