Global markets have a risk-off mentality currently, meaning many investors have a bias towards taking profits off the table and holding cash while they see how events play out.
This saw equity markets get pushed lower as the world focuses on the impacts of rising inflation and rising interest rates.
The wheat market has traded very differently when compared to equity markets so far this year, however there was some commonality last week as funds decided to book profits in Chicago Board of Trade wheat.
CBOT spot wheat futures were down 3.4 per cent for the week as at time of writing, and are now 17pc below the highs reached earlier this year in US cents a bushel terms.
On a macro scale, wheat fundamentals still feel overall supportive.
The Russia/Ukraine conflict and heightened inflation hitting at a time when large production areas of North America, the European Union, China and India have had prolonged dry weather are structurally supportive to price.
None of these issues have short-term fixes. But the market has known, monitored and priced these risks for some time.
Now we're on the doorstep of the northern hemisphere harvest, which traditionally means we see some harvest pressure on prices as more grain becomes available and Australian grain usually becomes less competitive.
This year it's going to be a smaller northern hemisphere crop and the window for Australian grain to make its way into international markets will be extended. But there are some headwinds on prices.
The northern hemisphere harvest is coinciding with a global risk-off attitude by investors, and there has been a lot of risk already priced into CBOT wheat.
Additionally, at these high price levels, you can expect wheat consumers to look at potential substitutes. Hence the corn crop will be one to watch.
The early ratings of the US spring crops have been released with corn and soybean crops rated good-to-excellent above the 10-year average, according to Profarmer Australia.
We may be in for a period of subdued prices on CBOT wheat, which is not unusual for this time of year.
The Ukraine/Russia situation remains the potential X-factor in the market.
There's a good size Russian crop coming, and a heap of grain stored already in both Russia and Ukraine wanting to be exported.
If that was to get moving more freely it would see more risk come out of global wheat values. That appears to be a big "if" at this stage.
Thankfully in Australian grain markets most grades managed to lift in price over the week.
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