AMERICAN and European officials are working to try and create more pathways to move stranded Ukrainian grain west into eastern Europe.
US president Joe Biden declared last week his administration was working with European partners to get grain from Ukraine into Poland, while there have been other moves to freight Ukrainian grain overland to the Baltic States where it can be then exported by sea.
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Grain is already moving from Ukraine west to nations such as Romania and Bulgaria to help ease the loss of access to critical Black Sea ports because of the conflict with Russia.
However, grain industry commentators have warned that while moving grain overland to Europe may help get some Ukrainian stocks to a market desperately looking for supplies a combination of factors mean it is likely to only be a fraction of what would normally move out of the Black Sea.
"You would normally expect around five or six million tonnes a month to move through the Black Sea ports, at a best case you'd probably get 1.5m tonnes moved via Europe," said AgScientia principal Lloyd George.
"Once you factor in that Europe is a big buyer of Ukrainian corn and sunflowers and that normal trade also has to be moved west there probably is not a lot of capacity," Mr George said.
He said Ukraine's infrastructure, which was strongly geared to take grain south to the Black Sea, would also provide constraints.
"There are different rail gauges between Europe and the old Soviet Union, the road system is not great and there is also a lack of available truck drivers, all of which presents hurdles in moving grain out via Europe."
Mr George said much of the demand for Ukrainian wheat came from the Middle East and North Africa, which is closest to the Black Sea.
"Moving the grain out via Europe would represent additional freight costs as well."
Officials are working feverishly to get some sort of a solution in place prior to the new crop harvest which is beginning now to help boost faltering world food security.
Some Middle Eastern nations, such as Lebanon, were buying over 90 per cent of their wheat requirements from Ukraine prior to the conflict and urgently require supplies.
In spite of the Russian invasion Ukraine still has a reasonable plant of crop in the ground and climatic conditions have been relatively good, although a shortage of inputs such as pesticide and fertiliser will curtail yield to an extent.
There previously had been talks of a deal with Russia to allow the safe passage of grain from both nations via the Black Sea but these hopes were effectively scuppered when Russian recently bombed a Ukrainian grain port facility.
The US government is looking at novel solutions, such as building temporary silos in western Ukraine near the Polish border but it is unknown how quickly this storage could be constructed and whether it would be ready in time for the upcoming harvest.
Further complicating matters are reports that Russia has been stealing Ukrainian grain and moving to sell it to countries in the Middle East struggling with food security issues.
Within Ukraine there are also concerns that without sufficient export channels there will not be enough storage and grain may be left to spoil.
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Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is Fairfax Ag Media's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his ten years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector. Away from work, he is a keen traveller, having spent his long service leave last year in Spain learning the language.
Gregor Heard is Fairfax Ag Media's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his ten years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector. Away from work, he is a keen traveller, having spent his long service leave last year in Spain learning the language.
