AN end to live cattle exports would immediately dent average cattle prices across the country to the tune of two to four per cent and wipe a whopping $8.1 billion off the national beef industry books over 20 years, new modelling has shown.
Based on the current Eastern States Young Cattle Indicator, that 4pc decline works out to be about $150 less for the average 350 kilogram steer.
That slice off the return to the producer would be the same for an Angus animal going direct to an abattoir in Victoria as it would be for a Brahman steer in the north.
Taking live-ex buyer competition out of the market would be felt by all.
Work done by economics advisory firm Acil Allen looking at historic cattle price elasticities indicates that even a halving of live exports would result in up to a 1.9pc fall in average cattle prices.
The investigations were done as part of a report commissioned by research bodies LiveCorp and Meat & Livestock Australia, which puts figures on the contribution of the live-ex trade, not just to producers and exporters but to those who work in related sectors and regions.
The key finding was that Australia's live cattle export trade contributes $1.4b to the national economy and employs 6,573 people, with more than 80pc of direct value being contributed by northern Australia.
But just how large an economic impact the trade has on the wider cattle sector, and how much it impacts other parts of the economy, was probably the most surprising aspect of the research, Acil Allen principal Alexandra Lobb told Farmonline.
The impacts are extremely broad, Dr Lobb said.
"We developed a model that estimates the relationship between the price and volume of cattle, using historical data back to 1991," she said.
"We applied some assumptions - Bos indicus cattle don't necessarily command the same price as Bos taurus for instance, and also factored in the distance live-ex cattle would need to travel to reach other markets."
The modelling determined live-ex cattle would end up accounting for about 10pc of total national slaughter.
Dr Lobb said complex and fluent relationships were involved and with the current strength in the cattle market continuing to hold, the impact on the wider market might well be more significant but the findings were an indication of what could be expected with an exit of the trade.
"The loss over 20 years is very significant by any standards," she said.
A reduction or cessation of live cattle trading also has the potential to impact land value, the report showed.
The industry impacts modelled were used to estimate the 20 years' net present value of cattle revenue per hectare from the 615,000 square kilometres of grazing land in the Northern Territory.
Assuming no further improvements or income from other uses, cattle income per hectare declines between 11 and 34.4pc.
LiveCorp chief executive officer Wayne Collier said conducting the analysis provided up-to-date information to better understand the important role the trade plays to the communities and businesses of northern Australia.
"It's important to also recognise how the live export trade affects the economic wellbeing of the whole supply chain," he said.
"It's not just rural and regional communities in Australia, but those in destination markets who rely on our cattle to help provide nutrition and contribute to food security and affordability."
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