NORTHERN Australia has been put on alert with monsoon rains set to return in the coming week.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the return of the monsoon will coincide with the forecast eastward movement of the Madden-Julian Oscillation into the Maritime Continent (the region between the Indian and Pacific Oceans) in early February.
February and March are recognised as the peak period for tropical cyclone activity across northern Australia.
BoM says while tropical lows may develop, they are most likely to be in the Indian Ocean south of the Indonesian archipelago and near the western Maritime Continent.
Queensland may also see more rain.
BoM says the La Nina in the Pacific is continuing, creating broad environmental conditions favourable for tropical cyclone formation.
"Northern Australia has been in a monsoon break period over the last week but there were periods of storms and squalls that were experienced across the region," the official forecaster says.
"Further rainfall was experienced in the Kimberley region of Western Australia as a weak tropical low influenced the weather across the region, associated with the passage of an equatorial Rossby wave.
"The rainfall recorded was less than that received during ex-tropical cyclone Ellie at the end of December and early January, thus did not cause further flooding in the Fitzroy River catchment."
"The Madden-Julian Oscillation is forecast to weaken from its moderate to strong intensity in the eastern Indian Ocean and is forecast to move over the Maritime Continent in early February.
"Although the MJO is forecast to weaken as it tracks across the Maritime Continent region and into the Western Pacific region, it is likely to have an influence on tropical weather through to mid-February."
There are currently no cyclones shown in Australian waters, and a 'very low' chance of a cyclone developing in the next three days.
