THE GROSS value of the Australian sugar crop is expected to jump markedly this season on the back of higher prices and good yields before remaining steady over the medium term.
Into the long term the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences said the total value would drop from $1.9 billion for the 2022-23 season down 11 per cent to $1.7 billion in real terms by 2027-28.
This year a combination of high cane yields and high global prices, caused primarily by shortages in India, mean a big 29pc year on year increase in the value of the national sugar cane crop.
Looking out to next year ABARES said the end to the three year long La Nina weather pattern was likely to see drier conditions which could see a fall in overall cane production.
However, on the flip side, there will be higher extraction rates of raw sugar per tonne of sugar cane and global prices are expected to remain at current high levels.
Further out, ABARES said in its sugar outlook that while it expected modest growth in the area planted to sugar cane this was likely to be offset by lower yields in the lead up to 2027-28.
Value in real terms is expected to come back because of projected higher inflation rates in that period.
Interestingly, ABARES researchers nominated fuel prices as an area to watch for sugar producers.
This is principally because of the Brazilian sugar industry's ability to switch product into ethanol manufacturing if fuel prices are high enough, which would offset likely lower food demand from increasingly health conscious consumers globally.
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
