The Bureau of Meteorology's long term forecast is offering a hint of relief for parched farmers who have endured the driest October nationally since 2002, with a slight swing towards more average rainfall over the summer period.
While the overall three month summer outlook is still for increased odds of below average rainfall for much of the country, the latest BoM data has improved odds of achieving median totals, especially in NSW, which has been hard hit by dry conditions this year.
The news is even more positive in the medium term outlook, with a better than 75 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall over much of NSW and a better than 70pc chance of exceeding the median over large parts of western Queensland in the period up until December 1.
On the flip side potential losers over the summer period could be those in the northern tropics, with most areas north of the Tropic of Capricorn having a 35pc or below chance of exceeding the median, during the time of year they receive the most rainfall.
Eastern South Australia and western Victoria also have below average chances of exceeding their medians for rain, but as winter-dominant rainfall areas this will not have a major impact on farmers well off for water after three La Nina seasons and may assist farmers looking to harvest crops and retain dry feed.
The current El Nino event in place in the Pacific Ocean is continuing with the BoM saying it could strengthen before gradually weakening early in the new year.
The Madden Julian Oscillation, which influences weather in the tropics, could strengthen this week which would lead to an increased chance of rain in northern Australia.
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, which is correlated with drier than average conditions, is continuing, however in line with its pattern it is likely to break down before the end of the year.
Spring was very dry over much of the country, with BoM data showing October rainfall across the country as a whole was 65 per cent below the 1961-1990 average.
Key areas of focus for rainfall deficits included the top end, far north Queensland, south-eastern Queensland and south-western Western Australia.
In the short-term, the BoM is forecasting useful rain over agricultural parts of Queensland, eastern NSW and western South Australia over the next eight days.
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
