WHETHER she wins the seat of Indi in north-eastern Victoria or not, independent candidate Cathy McGowan says she has already had a victory.
"Part of the whole achievement was to see if we could make the seat close and we're doing it," said Ms McGowan, a rural consultant who is attempting to wrest the seat from Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella, who has held it since 2001.
Ms McGowan will benefit from Labor and Greens preferences, giving her a chance of winning the vast electorate, which takes in Wangaratta, Wodonga and some of the snowfields.
She has rallied an extraordinary alliance of supporters – including prominent local Nationals members – and raised more than $100,000 in donations for her "community-based campaign", which she says grew out of the "disillusionment and disenchantment people were feeling with politics".
ReachTEL polling of the seat in mid-August showed 23.3 per cent of 611 residents would give Ms McGowan their first vote, with Ms Mirabella on 43.5 per cent, down from the 52.6 per cent of the primary vote she won in 2010.
An online poll by local newspaper, The Border Mail, found 67 per cent of respondents would vote for Ms McGowan. Polling by the major parties suggests the Liberal MP could lose the seat, The Australian Financial Review reports.
Ms Mirabella, the opposition spokeswoman for innovation, industry and science and a close ally of leader Tony Abbott, feels she has been targeted by a concerted and highly personal campaign.
"The Greens candidate was at least honest about saying we're concerned about getting rid of Sophie Mirabella," she said.
"A vote for an independent is a vote for Labor. The only way to change the government is to vote for the Coalition. At the end of the day, people have a choice between a direct voice in cabinet or another [Tony] Windsor-like independent bleating from the crossbenches."
Mr Windsor is among those who have publicly endorsed Ms McGowan. A quote from him, awarding Ms Mirabella the "nasty prize" in Parliament, was used in automated phone messages that were authorised by Labor attacking the incumbent MP.McGowan deplores 'dirty tricks'
Ms Mirabella said the so-called robo-messages are evidence of a Labor-independent alliance. Ms McGowan deplored them as "dirty tricks" by Labor.
She avoided mentioning Ms Mirabella by name and said the "Voice for Indi" movement grew out of a series of 53 "Kitchen Table conversations" with more than 400 people from the electorate.
These talks identified transport, broadband, health and agriculture as priorities. She wants faster delivery of the national broadband network and improvements to the Melbourne to Wodonga rail link and other local transport.
Her campaign is notable for the range of supporters – including former state Nationals MP Ken Jasper and former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Fraser – as well the use of social media and engagement of young people.
Ms McGowan has also had many conversations about what she would do if she were elected as a crossbencher in a hung parliament.
"The feeling of the community is don't set yourself up as a kingmaker. It's not your job to decide who governs Australia," she said.
"Both leaders have said they won't deal with independents. If I was looking for a guiding principle, apart from negotiating what is good for Indi, it would be that I would follow the popular vote. If Mr Abbott and Mr Rudd don't want to talk to independents, then I'm all for going back to the polls."
Ms McGowan worked as a Liberal staffer in the 1980s, has a background in agripolitics and received an Order of Australia for her work supporting rural women. Ms Mirabella moved from Melbourne to win Indi in 2001 at a three-cornered contest, dashing the Nationals' hopes of securing the seat.
