![Riverine flooding is causing significant damage to the crop in NSW. Riverine flooding is causing significant damage to the crop in NSW.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/5Q2j7ezUfQBfUJsaqK3gfB/56b1011c-50c8-4b66-bf4e-e319045d195d.JPG/r0_267_5232_3220_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
ONCE tipped to push record levels, analysts are now predicting the Australian national crop will be down on earlier estimates due primarily to damage caused by waterlogging throughout eastern and southern Australia.
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A severe and widespread frost in Western Australia is also tipped to have a major impact on overall yield in many regions there.
The focal point for waterlogging damage is central NSW.
Early indications from the NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI) estimate total crop loss in excess of $680 million for the state.
Central West Local Land Services General Manager Andrew Mulligan said farmers in the Lachlan and Macquarie Valleys had been particularly hard hit.
“There has been significant damage to crops and pastures in areas affected by recent flooding with the worst affected areas including Forbes, Corinella, Condobolin and Nyngan.”
John Minogue, Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) northern panel chair, said pulse crops were suffering the worst.
“Chickpeas are definitely the biggest problem, they are under severe stress.”
However, while Mr Minogue, who is based near West Wyalong in central NSW, said there would be individual stories of heartbreak he hoped the region as a whole would produce a reasonable volume of grain.
“For many people it is a case of having lost some ground to waterlogging, but having better crops than usual in the parts that didn’t get excessively wet, so I still hope we see an average year overall in this region.”
Mr Minogue said the waterlogging in his area was not solely on areas prone to riverine flooding.
“We’ve seen paddocks not usually at risk of waterlogging go under just because of the sheer volume of rain and because there is nowhere for the water to go.”
He said he also had concerns about how the crop would fare once the weather warmed up.
“We’ve seen in the past crops that have hung on while they are sitting in water turn up their toes when that water warms up after a few fine days.
“I don’t think the water is going to get away in less than a week and there are some warm temperatures predicted so this well could be the case this year.”
The most recent Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) crop report, released in early September, was for a record national winter crop of 46.1 million tonnes with a wheat crop of 28.1mt, but many private analysts are now tipping a 10 per cent or greater reduction from these figures.