![Flock health on cusp of recovery Flock health on cusp of recovery](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/9kyzP9Zutm5XFVsqvLWUBX/df5009e5-1e05-416d-a975-4c745cb4f1be.JPG/r0_254_4928_3026_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
HOPES for a national flock recovery are delicately poised as high slaughter levels bruise seasonal-inspired stocking gains.
Subscribe now for unlimited access to all our agricultural news
across the nation
or signup to continue reading
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee estimated a 3.6 per cent fall in the flock to 68.4 million this year before plateauing for 2016-17.
While the conservative analysis points towards an unchanged flock, Independent Commodity Services market analyst Andrew Woods said a flock rebuild was on the agenda as producers responded dramatically to the favourable seasonal conditions by opting to hold an increase number of lamb and ewes.
Mr Woods said the numbers adult sheep sold to abattoirs for the past three months had fallen by more than 20pc on the 12 months prior and lamb volumes were down by 8-10pc , which was indicative of an expansion phase in response to a marked pickup in seasonal conditions following a run of three dry years on average across all sheep regions.
Mr Woods said the reduction in slaughter numbers suggested the industry was on a cusp of a rebuild phase.
It is mirroring the fall in offtake which was experienced during the past two periods of flock expansion in the late 1980s and in 2011-2013, he said.
“Slaughter levels have backed-off in the past four months which fits in with the pattern you expect when people are trying to build up numbers,” he said.
“The evidence shows sheep and lamb slaughter rates are down year on year which suggests that producers have either got less sheep to sell or are holding sheep with the intention bolster their overall flock number.”
![Flock health on cusp of recovery Flock health on cusp of recovery](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/9kyzP9Zutm5XFVsqvLWUBX/5ccd2c38-020d-480e-a3b9-9bf38553d36d.jpg/r0_0_799_492_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
He said the recent rainfall and forecast season supported a potential rise of 2-4pc, adding about two million extra head to the national flock.
“This net increase will come from selling less older sheep and retaining a few younger sheep,” Mr Woods said.
“The one unknown is that the wet winter has changed people plans because they’ve got extra feed they might hold lambs longer and then sell.
Meanwhile, saleyard price for lambs and sheep for slaughter has eased from all-time highs after Merino lambs touched 601 c/kg at the end of June before falling to 493c/kg last week following a flush of supply on the market.
Sheep prices also following suit with a recent peak of 411c/kg, the highest since August 2011, before sliding to 373 c/kg last week.
Mr Woods said weaning and mortality percentages introduced error into balance sheet estimates of the flock size as they varied and lacked accuracy.
Sheep consultant Jason Trompf, JT Agri-Source, said a flock recovery would be supported by sustained record marking rates which needed to be above the current 92pc average, and a fall in mortality levels.
“The status of the flock is the sums of the ins and outs, only part of the equation is slaughter rates,” Mr Trompf said.
“There might be marginal gains in flock numbers but that would be reliant on ongoing record lamb marking rates and low mortality rates which are both sensitive to seasonal condition.”
Despite market prices slightly softening this spring, Mr Trompf said the sustained high returns was putting pressure on producers’ marketing decisions.
“While mutton prices remains high, it sustains the pressure on the ewe base because the salvage rate for a ewe, cast for age or non performing ewe, is quite high,” he said.
“Producers have to forego cashflow and opportunity to build their flock numbers.
“What we don’t know in this is if there are rebuild flock numbers in the cereal sheep zone which ahs been decimated in recent years.”