If you’re hoping turbulent times in Australian politics will settle down soon, returning to a more business-like period of old school-style democracy, don’t hold your breath.
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Farmers and agribusiness leaders have been warned the unpredictable and fickle voting trends and political personalities which make Canberra more like a 24-hour soap opera than a model of mature administration are unlikely to see any long-term predictability for some time.
Political loyalties and affiliations were dissolving - even unions had new non-Labor Party priorities, conceded Labor agriculture spokesman and Member for Hunter for the past 20 years, Joel Fitzgibbon.
He said industry groups, including agriculture, could no longer expect to rely on support from traditional parliamentary allies to secure best policy outcomes.
“Politics is changing. It’s changing dramatically and it’s changing fastest in Western democracies,” he told the National Farmers Federation Congress.
“The emergence of Donald Trump in the US, Brexit and a divided Labour Party in the UK, are the most high profile examples.
“But there’s much more.
“Just 17 months ago, 62 per cent of Irish voters supported a same-sex marriage referendum - who’d have thought it?”
In Spain political stability under a two-party system, where two major parties shared 80 per cent of the vote for 33 years, had recently ruptured to produce four dominant parties.
Back at home, since 2007 no Australian Prime Minister had lasted a full three-year-term.
Mr Fitzgibbon noted in almost 60 years, between 1949 to 2007, federal governments were defeated on just five occasions.
When the Rudd/Gillard Government effectively lost the 2010 election it only survived in power as a minority government.
Tony Abbott’s first term Coalition Government only survived the next 2016 election, with Malcolm Turnbull as leader, by the closest of margins.
The two major parties shared just 76pc of the vote in this year’s federal poll, compared with 95pc a century ago.
Fast changing voter habits made it likely one in every three Australians would vote for somebody not in one of the traditional major parties in the not-too-distant future.
“Voters are less concerned about what a particular party achieved 60 years ago, but more interested in what is being offered now,” Mr Fitzgibbon said.
“Affiliations are fracturing and loyalty and tradition cannot be relied upon as before.
“Union donations are making their way to The Greens, for example, and business interests are increasingly hedging their bets on who they support in parliament.”
He said industry peak bodies were once confident the party they backed would enjoy longevity in government, but today two-term governments, let alone three-terms in power, seemed more unlikely than likely.
This increasingly unpredictable environment meant major political parties would rely more on a smaller proportion of the primary vote to stay in power and must become more flexible with their policies to rally support they needed to get changes through parliament.
In a pointed pitch to conservative-leaning farmer groups and their business allies, Mr Fitzgibbon said regardless of whether past relationships with political parties or power brokers were formal or informal, industry bodies should re-think traditional political relationships to secure best policy outcomes over time.
“This re-orientation of relationships will be critical to securing policy continuity, particularly in those sectors where tough issues and decisions lie ahead,” he said.
“No sector is more in need of policy continuity than agriculture.”
As if to illustrate Mr Fitzgibbon’s point, new Senator Pauline Hanson, whose One Nation party symbolises some of today’s fluid voter habits and the often-fractious mood in Canberra, told the convention she had little confidence in the value of free trade agreements (FTA).
She was especially sceptical of the promised Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) between nations representing 40pc of global GDP, including Australia and the US.
“I’m a protectionist. I don’t want a lot of cheap rubbish from China arriving here and forcing us to shut down so much of what we produce for ourselves,” she said.
“We’re losing our expertise, our businesses and our land ownership.”
Senator Hanson said more public scrutiny of free trade deals should happen before they were signed.
She said the unfair 2005 US-Australia FTA had swiftly removed numerous restrictions on US goods and services coming into Australia, but maintained restrictions on Australian exports to the US for up to 18 years.
However, she was also highly critical of today’s politicians using parliament’s changing makeup to play obstructionist tactical games with each other.
“I think people are fed up with political parties which don’t get what they want turning around and deliberately blocking legislation or the plans of the other side.
“I don’t like this behavior.
“I don’t horse trade for political favours.”
Senator Hanson said her office door was open to the farm sector to provide her with guidance on the right policies to vote for.
“I have my opinions, but I don’t know everything – I want to hear how you want me to represent you.”
Andrew Marshall
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
