RELATED: Monitoring crop quality
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![Wheat crops in the Wimmera in Victoria, such as this one photographed on Sunday, are filling up to five rows wide in a boost for yield estimates. Wheat crops in the Wimmera in Victoria, such as this one photographed on Sunday, are filling up to five rows wide in a boost for yield estimates.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/5Q2j7ezUfQBfUJsaqK3gfB/006a06f4-a3ee-4341-a774-777d82ef0a34.JPG/r0_0_2448_3264_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
IN SPITE of the publicity surrounding the devastating floods in central NSW and concerns about the impact of a series of frosts in Western Australia, crop forecasters are increasingly lifting their production estimates to near record levels.
Key forecasts for wheat production are hovering at just under 30 million tonnes, which would be close to record levels, while some analysts suggest the record set in 2011-12 of 29.9mt could be smashed if crop damage in WA and NSW is less pronounced than expected.
Hannah Janson, Australian Crop Forecasters, said ACF’s current estimate was for a wheat crop of 29.5mt.
“It might be slightly higher than some out there, but we feel that on a macro level the weather damage is relatively isolated.”
“There have been catastrophic problems for growers in central NSW that have been flooded and we expect to hear some bad news in terms of frost damage in Western Australia, but we still expect to see a lot of grain out there.”
“Queensland in particular is the star performer. It has been a close to perfect season for many Queensland croppers,” Ms Janson said.
“We are speaking to Queensland farmers who have started harvest and they are very happy with the early results – yield and quality are good.”
She also nominated Victoria as a state likely to perform markedly better than last year.
Western Australia is shaping up as the key factor in differing crop estimates.
Some have estimated the frost as the worst ever, slashing overall winter crop production by as much as 5mt, while most have it cutting around 2mt.
“We don’t have the frost damage at the upper end but we do think it has cut a big chunk out of crop production in the west,” Ms Janson said.
Chris Coore, AgFarm advantage program manager, said his company had the national wheat crop flagged at 29.8mt.
“We think it is going to be big. There are some areas with a lot of potential there.”
He also raised the possibility of a record barley crop.
“We’re looking at a pretty big range, between 9 and 11mt. If it got up around that 12mt it would be a record.
“We’ve spoken with growers in parts of the Riverina and they are expecting some very good barley yields and that story is reflected in a lot of areas.”