WHILE the mood within the grains industry on the east coast is generally one of excitement, leading into what is likely to be a record season for many, recent crop forecasts show crops are not in such rude health everywhere across the nation.
The Grains Industry of Western Australia (GIWA) released its October crop report and as expected there was a substantial drop in production forecasts since its previous outlook.
GIWA cut 12 per cent from its wheat outlook last month, down to 7.4 million tonnes, a drop of a million tonnes.
This is primarily due to poorer yields in the northern cropping area.
It's all grain forecast was down 10pc to 12.99m tonnes.
These figures are markedly lower than other estimates, which had wheat at over 8m tonnes and all grain from 14m tonnes and up.
However, despite the double digit cuts from GIWA it was not all bad news.
In spite of very light rainfall for September and the first half of October over much of the WA grain belt, GIWA said cool conditions meant yield losses were not as drastic as if the dry weather had been accompanied by heat.
Harvest has just commenced in the far north of WA's production zone, with farmers working predominately on barley and lupins.
GIWA said all regions, even the high rainfall zones, had suffered from dry conditions in September.
In terms of grain quality, GIWA said it was still too early to make a call, but cautioned it was likely there would be large volumes of barley with high screenings.
In terms of the other major crops lupins have grown exceptionally well and most will yield above average.
Even though production is centred on the high rainfall zone parts of the state, it is only in the southern and south western regions where above average yields are expected.
The increase in oat plantings this year is not going to result in excess supply as was anticipated earlier in the season.
More oats than planned was cut for hay to hit tonnage targets as yields were down.
Oats for grain is only expected to be average, except for the south west coastal regions.