THE FIRST official crop forecast for the year from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources Economics and Sciences has seen the forecaster predict another bin-burster.
ABARES is forecasting the fourth highest winter crop on record, with 50.9 million tonnes, off the back of a 23.4 million hectare plant, however some growers believe this may be difficult to achieve given lower planting due to excess moisture.
There are growing concerns around the planted area in NSW and southern Queensland due to heavy autumn rain and waterlogged paddocks.
Farmers were unable to plant during the traditional autumn sowing window and in many areas with cold and wet winters on the way may not have the chance to get on paddocks to plant in a timely manner.
ABARES officials said the issues with waterlogging were outweighed by strong production outlooks in many other parts of the country, particularly WA.
And on the ground, WA growers are also upbeat about seasonal prospects.
WA grower Gary McGill, who farms at Calingiri and Ballidu in the state's mid-north, said conditions were near ideal across much of the west.
"There was some good summer rain for many, putting down moisture for this crop and then we've had some good rain through autumn," Mr McGill said.
"It is far from too wet, people can access paddocks easily enough for putting out urea or spraying, so if things go right there is no reason we can't seriously challenge last year's big production figures," he said.
"This is all heavily dependent on what happens over the rest of winter and more importantly during the spring, but things are set up pretty well, even out into the lower rainfall zones like the eastern wheatbelt."
On the other side of the country it is a different story, with growing concerns about the wet and its potential impact, particularly over the next eight weeks when evaporation rates are very low.
In NSW, Booroowa farmer Jono Merriman said he felt crop forecasters might be underestimating the extent of the big wet.
"There is an awful lot of crop that has not gone in or has been waterlogged, not just here but right out to the west into the lower rainfall areas," Mr Merriman said.
"If farmers have not planted by now then they're going to struggle to get anything in on time, it is very wet and hard to get equipment out into the paddock," he said.
"This is not your normal pocket of water in the paddock, we're talking 20 per cent wipe out over a very large area and there is the rest of winter to get through yet as well."
ABARES said heavy May rainfall in Queensland and large parts of New South Wales has caused waterlogging issues in some regions experiencing ongoing wet condition which limited access to fields for some growers in early winter and is likely to prevent them from planting a full program if conditions in June remain wet.
Mr Merriman said prospects were better for early sown crops.
"There is a lot of long-season canola that was planted from February onwards and it has got up and established through the autumn and looks good and the same for the longer season cereals, but trying to plant from May onwards has been where the problems have been."
"Normally with a wet year what you lose in one patch you'll make up in another part of the paddock but this year given the full profile and the prospect of a wet year that may not be the case."
In Victoria, conditions are not so wet but there are still trafficability issues and growers in high rainfall zones are conscious of the fact the peak of winter with the least sunlight hours and lowest evaporation rates are still to come.
ABARES has a slightly smaller plant in Queensland and NSW on the back of these issues with wet conditions, partially compensated by larger planting elsewhere.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a winter outlook with the maximum possible confidence of above average winter rainfall over eastern Australia.