THE EXTENT of flood damage in the NSW crop remains difficult for crop forecasting analysts to predict.
There have been large areas, particularly through the Central West, that have received excessive rainfall, with the big wet hampering sowing, in some cases to the point where farmers have been forced to abandon plans to plant.
"It's tough to get a handle on just how much area was not planted as it can vary dramatically according to individual farmers' circumstances, and then also the yield prospects of the remaining crop," said Australian Crop Forecasters analyst James Maxwell.
"Forecasting the NSW crop is very difficult as there is the moisture there and that will help the crop that is established but on the flip side if it does come in wet, and the long-term forecasts suggest it is a big chance to, then areas with already high soil moisture levels could come under the threat of further yield penalties."
Mr Maxwell said much of NSW's total production prospects hinged on yield prospects rather than last minute adjustments to planted area reflecting higher rates of abandonment.
"There is still a lot of crop in the ground but the difficult part is forecasting what comes next, usually when you put out an estimate you can see whether there is risk to the upside or downside, especially when it is usually a lack of moisture, rather than an over-abundance that is the worry, but in this case it will all depend on what happens from here."
"We could see better crops in traditionally lower yielding drier areas reflecting the higher rain, but will that make up for the lower yields in the wet areas that have been waterlogged, it is hard to say.
"You also have to factor in, unlike a drought, there will probably be grain produced on the wet areas, there will be lower yields but unless it gets really wet there won't be the big planted areas that don't get harvested you see in a drought, there are a lot of points to consider when thinking about this."
At present he said ACF had NSW pegged for 9.5 million tonnes of wheat as part of a national crop of 30 million tonnes.
In the Central West, Tottenham farmer Terry Fishpool said there would be area that would not be planted.
"I doubt there will be enough extra planting elsewhere to make up for what has not gone in," Mr Fishpool said.
"It was difficult with the late start and the high cost of inputs, people are saying you need a 10 bag wheat crop (2 tonne to the hectare) just to break even so when you've been significantly delayed you need to think about whether you realistically think you're going to make that back," he said.
He said some farmers had been able to get crop in early while others had been delayed.
Luckily, he said a dry June had allowed further late plantings.
Falls of 29mm in the past week have been beneficial.
"We only had 3mm for June so that 29mm has been good in getting up the late-sown stuff.
"It's difficult to predict what happens from here - it could come in wet and we might run into trouble but there is still potential for good yields too if things pan out right."
Mr Fishpool said the situation was worse towards the Great Dividing Range around Parkes and Forbes.
"It has been a lot wetter there and that is where people have struggled to get the crop in full stop, there are still photos of seeding rigs bogged, and now we're nearing mid-July and it's getting to the point where it's pretty risky to plant."
Elsewhere, Mr Maxwell said the WA crop was still in reasonable condition, although there were some emerging concerns with dryness, a situation echoed in South Australia.
He said Victoria looked the best out of the major grain producing states, with ample moisture but few losses to waterlogging.