FALLS in grain prices in line with declines in the broader market may only be temporary with the focus to return to the fundamental shortage of available grain.
Rabobank Australia's general manager of research Stefan Vogel said recent drops in grain prices had been sparked by a sell-off in commodities by funds exiting their futures position.
However, speaking at the Australian Grains Industry Conference last month Mr Vogel said that while there were fears of a global recession history showed that food consumption was not necessarily linked to the broader economy.
"In the past we haven't seen big changes in food consumption even with global recessions," Mr Vogel said.
"If we're to really see prices come back we'd need to see a massive cutback in grain consumption, you just can't take out the 10-15 million tonnes missing due to the Black Sea conflict and not have an impact," he said.
He said the situation was different to other highly volatile periods, such as 2008-09.
"In that instant the market was guilty of completely misjudging the size of the crop, which was later revised upwards, I don't think we are misjudging the production outlook so dramatically this time around."
Mr Vogel said one key point being pushed by those with bearish sentiments was the good outlook in Russia.
He said he was not convinced about the high official crop forecasts coming out of the Russian government.
"How do Russian analysts define Russia these days, are areas in Ukraine such as Donetsk currently under Russian occupation considered Russian?" he questioned.
"I have no proof but there is more than a chance that these areas are being counted twice, which brings actual supplies down."
Mr Vogel also said he had doubts about getting grain out of Ukraine in meaningful volumes.
"We've seen a fall in shipments for the 2021-22 marketing year but this is set to drop by much more in the 2022-23 season, the 2021 crop export program was largely over the hump when the conflict hit."
Mr Vogel also highlighted the risk of grain being weaponised as part of the Russia / Ukraine conflict.
"Food can be used as a weapon, Russia could hold back grain which would create food security issues in a number of countries."
Looking further out, Mr Vogel said while there was a move towards electric vehicles and a slow phasing out of the combustion engine he did not see demand for grain from the biofuel sector to fall off the edge of a cliff.
"Bans on the use of less sustainable products such as palm oil will be of benefit for industries such as canola."
"While land-based use of biofuels may drop you might see it increase in areas such as aviation or marine transport.
"At present in Europe there is legislation that aviation fuel cannot be plant based if that were to change it could create extra demand for canola."
Grain markets have largely traded sideways in recent weeks as investors look for a solid lead up or down.
There remain ongoing concerns about dryness in key wheat growing regions such as Europe and parts of the US and southern Canada while India removing import duties is being seen as a sign the subcontinental nation is likely to be an importer, rather than exporter of wheat this year.
On the other hand, loads continue to move out of Ukraine and Russian crop estimates continue to rise.