CROP forecasters are becoming increasingly bullish about the likelihood of a third consecutive bumper Australian harvest.
James Maxwell, Australian Crop Forecasters, said he had national wheat production flagged at 33 million tonnes, down slightly on last year's 36.3 million tonnes but still one of the highest figures on record and with more potential upside than downside.
"We're still going through the numbers because heavy rain in Western Australia this week will be really important for crop production there," Mr Maxwell said.
"Things were slightly on the dry side in patches but big falls of 30-60mm sets virtually all areas up nicely," he said.
This opinion was backed up in a Grains Industry of Western Australia report this week.
The report said while top end potential had been hit by the dry early winter in many areas, the total crop could still push 20 million tonnes, down slightly on last year's record of 22.1m tonnes.
GIWA said in its report there had been a strong swing into canola in WA as farmers sought to take advantage of the high values on offer in that space, primarily at the expense of lupins and oats.
Mr Maxwell said there was still concern about excessive moisture in NSW and to a lesser extent Queensland.
"This is probably more a planted area rathern than average yield story, the early crops that have got established have got excellent potential and we're probably past the really damaging rainfall yield-wise, but getting a handle on how much crop was either not planted or planted late with diminished yield potential is the big question."
"Canola will be one that could be problematic as the planting window rapidly closes if you're resowing, but with a cool and wet finish late cereal crops will still go OK."
"There is still going to be plenty of grain around in both states, Central Queensland is a smaller area, but it is much improved, while the areas that haven't suffered with the wet start in NSW will have excellent moisture and good prospects as the days heat up."
Mr Maxwell said Victoria was in top notch condition, with virtually all areas looking good into the lead up to the critical spring period.
"There are some spots that are slightly too wet in high rainfall zones in south-western and north-eastern Victoria but far less than in NSW and large parts of key cropping areas in the Wimmera and Mallee look good, meaning it is likely to be better than last year.
He said South Australia had the biggest issues with dry conditions in the country, but was still tracking towards average yields.
"There are parts of the northern cropping belt there that are hand to mouth with rain, however parts of the Eyre Peninsula are looking good, with some areas probably slightly wet, while the south-east, which sometimes struggles with excess moisture, has enjoyed the dry-ish start to July followed by some good rain in August to date."
On the national scale, Mr Maxwell said while high fertiliser costs were a concern to growers he did not see lower applications limiting yields significantly.
"The returns are there so while it is expensive I think farmers who could source supplies still saw top-dressed nitrogen as a worthwhile investment, given the clear-cut signals for a wetter than average spring and potential for higher yields.
"If it had been a bit more marginal in terms of prospects we may have seen a greater cut-back in nitrogen use but the good season climatically means a lot of nitrogen has still gone out."
"In a recent survey we asked growers if the costs were impacting them and it was a 50-50 split, but within the 50pc that were concerned, many still said they were putting out nitrogen but looking at ways to get better value out of the input, such as through variable rate applications."
Over coming months, Mr Maxwell said traditional problems such as frost could be an issue, although the wet conditions may mitigate risk slightly, along with disease, which will be more of a threat in a damp spring.
"There hasn't been a big outbreak reported anywhere yet but as it warms up I expect farmers will have to be vigilant."
Further out he said the spectre of a wet harvest caused by La Nina and the Indian Ocean Dipole negative event was at the back of growers' minds, but added large capacity harvesters meant only a relatively small window of dry weather was required to get a big proportion of the total national crop off.
"We're talking three or four weeks and big percentage of crop is in the bin."