AS THE year ticks over to spring, the most critical period for the country's winter grain crops, the national crop forecaster is upbeat there will be a third consecutive bumper crop.
In its September Crop Report, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) predicted a winter crop of 55.5 million tonnes, the fourth highest on record and well above the ten year average.
ABARES said generally favourable conditions over winter, combined with timely late winter rainfall in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia had the season set up well.
However, it said that excessively wet conditions in NSW and Queensland could be potential impediments to yield.
Ongoing wet conditions in large parts of southern Queensland and northern and central NSW prevented many growers from sowing or re-attempting to sow a late winter crop, but the good potential elsewhere within both states means the states as a whole are still on track for above average production.
Grain production is forecast to be well above 10-year averages in all states, including the second highest on record in Western Australia and the fourth highest in New South Wales.
Sufficient levels of subsoil moisture at the beginning of spring and the likelihood of above average rainfall in most states are expected to support very high yield prospects.
Wheat production is forecast to be the second highest on record at 32.2 million tonnes, which is an 11pc decrease from the record level reached last year.
This figure is slightly lower than some estimates put out by private forecasters, such as Ikon Commodities, which recently put out a prediction of 35.7 million tonnes.
On the barley front, ABARES estimates 12.3 million tonnes, which would be the fourth largest on record, with many producers in the Mallee regions of Victoria, NSW and South Australia confident about their barley crop potential.
Canola production is forecast to reach the second highest level on record at 6.6 million tonnes, a 2 per cent decrease from the record reached last year.
ABARES has ratcheted up its canola estimates by 260,000 tonnes since its last crop report
In terms of hectares planted, the total winter crop planted is expected to be 23.5m hectares, down slightly on 2021-22, on the back of a 4pc drop in NSW and a 16pc drop in Queensland, which have offset increases elsewhere.
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
