The wool industry's slow but steady rise is forecast to continue

The latest official forecast for 2022/23 is for a five per cent national wool production rise on the year before.

Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee's forecast of shorn wool production remains at 340 million kilograms greasy.

Shorn wool production is expected to rise by between 3.2pc (NSW) to 13.5pc (Queensland).

The number of sheep shorn is forecast to be 74.9 million head, up 4.6pc.

Average cut per head is forecast to increase slightly to 4.54kg greasy.

The AWTA's forecast is in line with Meat and Livestock Australia's projected flock increase to reach 78.8 million next year.

National flock numbers are continuing to rebound from 2020 when the flock was just 64 million.

Australia's sheep numbers have fallen by about two-thirds in the past half a century.

The national flock has fallen from the dizzying heights of 180 million in the early 1970s.

According to the latest Rural Bank commodity overview, the increase in flock size is indicative of the confidence in the sheep meat industry and strong seasonal conditions driving higher lambing rates across Australia.

Australia still produces about 25pc of greasy wool sold on the world market - exports were valued at $3.6 billion in 2021-2022.

AWTA committee chairman Stephen Hill said the La Nina rains throughout most wool producing regions has produced abundant pasture feed contributing to a further rebuilding in the Australian sheep flock and high fleece weights.

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Australian flock numbers are tipped to rise by 4.6pc year on year, with the number of sheep shorn rising to 74.9 million head during 2022/23 - the highest since 2017/18.

"Continued wet conditions with lower average temperatures have negatively impacted pasture feed quality with many producers facing difficulties in accessing waterlogged or flooded paddocks to manage their sheep flocks and pasture," Mr Hill said.

The wetter season has increased the hazard posed by internal and external sheep parasites which has negatively impacted on sheep production, especially younger sheep.

Mr Hill said despite these challenges, the October 2022 Sheep Producers Intentions Survey revealed sheep producers are cautiously optimistic about the wool sector.

Producers remain concerned about labour shortages, particularly shearers, and a rise in input costs over the next year.

The climate conditions are also distorting shearing patterns, wool receivals and AWTA test figures.

"The large number of rainy days during spring and early summer has delayed shearing due to wet sheep and difficulties in keeping sufficient dry sheep for shearing to continue," Mr Hill said.

"Delays are also occurring in logistics between the farm-gate and broker stores resulting in AWTA test volumes being lower than expected in the first half of the season."

AWTA key test data from July to November indicates wool quality is very similar to last season, although vegetable matter content is expected to increase as the season progresses.

Average cut per head is forecast at 4.54kg greasy, a 0.4pc rise on the level estimated for the 2021/22 season.

The state and national committees who inform the AWTA forecasts will next meet in mid-April 2023.