Australia's peak agricultural research body has confirmed what many Victorian farmers already know - coronavirus pandemic workforce woes continued into 2022.
An Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) report on labour use found the total number of workers used by Australian horticulture farms decreased by 20 per cent - or 29,300 workers - during the past three years.
"This decrease was largely driven by a 66pc decrease - or 23,900 workers - in overseas contract workers, mostly working holiday makers," the report authors, Rhys Downham and Fred Litchfield found.
Analysis of 2021 census figures found the dairy sector had also been hard hit.
"Australian dairy farms used a total of 22,000 workers at peak labour use in 2020-21, decreasing from 26,200 workers in 2018-19," Mr Downham and Mr Litchfield found.
"This was mainly due to a decrease in the number of operating farms, a decrease in the number of domestic workers per farm (driven by an increase in the wages required to attract Australian workers and competitive labour markets) and a reduction in the availability of overseas workers over this period."
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United Dairyfarmers of Victoria president Mark Billing, of Simpson in Victoria, said the situation had not turned around, with shortages now reaching a point where they were having an impact on production.
"There are a number of farms that have reduced herd sizes because of the lack of staff - it's not just unskilled labour, it's also the lack of farm managers which is creating an issue," Mr Billing said.
That was compounded by the difficulty of providing on-farm accommodation.
While horticultural workers only needed to be housed for a short time, on a seasonal basis dairying was more of a "long-term work opportunity".
"There is no single answer - it's going to be a combination of things," he said
"It's about improving the profile of the industry and that comes back to dairy farmers, as much as anybody, talking about the opportunities we can create," he said.
There were good training pathways both on-farm and in technical support for the industry.
"Backpackers are slowly starting to come back - if you are prepared to do the training, and have them there for a short time then rotate into another backpacker its fine, but there are other businesses that want more permanent labour," he said.
"Changes to the visa requirements for UK tourists mean they don't need to do rural placements now to extend their stay - that's going to have an impact."
Streamlining the visa application process was one step in the right direction, he said.
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At the federal government's Jobs and Skills summit, in September, peak food industry bodies calculated the food supply chain - from paddock to plate - was 172,000 workers short.
Australian Meat Industry Council chief executive Patrick Hutchinson said the post-farmgate meat supply chain was already under-resourced to process the number of livestock forecast to be turned off in Australia in 2022.
There was a forecast for an increase of anything between 15-35pc, between 2023-2025, Mr Hutchinson said.
"This will obviously be catastrophic for Australian farmers if the volume of livestock is far greater than the meat processing industry can process, and the wider supply chain has the ability to manage," he said.
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Episode3 analyst Matt Dalgleish agreed.
"If you look at the granting of skilled visas, they were down 50pc in the last financial year," Mr Dalgleish said.
"That kind of exacerbated the problem, as we draw a lot of those meat workers from overseas."
The Pacific Islander Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme, which allows eligible Australian businesses to hire workers from nine Pacific islands and Timor-Leste, was also facing difficulties, Mr Dagleish said.
"It's taking two-to-three times longer to train those staff and it's a bit more costly - they are also having an issue in retaining them, once they have been trained.
"From what I've been told, around the country, there is a 10-15,000 worker shortage - if you look across the red meat supply chain, I think they are talking something like 40-50,000 short.
"The crunch will come with the expected rebuilding of the national cattle herd and sheep flock.
"The forecast for cattle slaughter this year was 6.6 million head, which is below the normal levels, while I think lambs are around 21 million - they are usually up around 23-24m."
Mr Dalgleish said local workers used to fill the roles, but job opportunities elsewhere were more attractive.
"There are a lot of places looking for workers and you can get yourself a reasonable position, with limited experience, just because people want a body to do the job," he said.
"Locals just don't want to do the [abbatoir] work, it's not very glamorous."
Shearing Contractors Association of Australia chief executive Jason Letchford said there was evidence some wool producers were offering above award cash payments to get workers into their sheds.
"It's about as bad as it's been - we can only measure these things anecdotally but it's far from good," he said.
"There are a lot of disgruntled farmers and upset shearing contractors, in that they can't get staff, even though they are doing their best."
Flooding meant New Zealanders, who came until December 1, faced delays in completing shearing.
"According to social media, which we use as an indicator, there are plenty of farmers wanting to queue jump and offer more than $5.50 a head to come and do lambs and you are seeing the word cash - whatever that means," Mr Letchford said.
He said the award rate was set at $3.47/head.
PALM could help -"but that is moving along at a bureaucratic pace," he said.
"We can't get it wrong.
"We have seen mistakes made in other sectors of agriculture, in bringing overseas workers in, and the relevant government departments don't want that to happen."
Contractors had to deal with three different federal departments and it was unlikely there would be any benefit from PALM before spring, next year.
Mr Letchford said most workers, if they could be found, were getting above average wages.
"We don't have too many wool classers, we are short of everyone - it varies from town to district, whether its shearers or shed staff," he said.
Mr Letchford urged farmers to delay shearing, if possible.
"Not all our workforce was at capacity in winter, so farmers who are really struggling to get their sheep shorn now should think about delating shearing, if they can, " he said.
"We then get the job done, in a timely manner, and if we have that continuity of work that means our domestic workers are making even better money and they stay in the industry."