EYCI dips only a few cents as increased numbers come on the market

While most national indicators continued to slide this week, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator dipped a mere 3.6 cents a kilogram carcase weight to sit today at 749c.

Given there were an additional 5000 head on offer in the EYCI category, analysts say that result demonstrates there is a fair degree of resilience in the cattle market this year.

Mecardo reports the market has just seen its highest weekly yardings of young cattle in seven months.

The National Australia Bank's February Rural Commodities Wrap says the EYCI is now closer to the drought-affected levels of late 2019 than the La Nina induced peak of early 2022.

NAB believes that is a reflection of ongoing high turnoff, constrained processor capacity and a challenging United States markets - risks it says are unlikely to abate this year, which will lead to prices continuing to fall.

It's forecast track, however, sees prices remain above pre-2020 levels.

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Many analysts and agents do seem to think the sharp correction at the start of the year was somewhat overdone and while the market will certainly be softer overall this year, there is some upside to the immediate future.

Northern NSW agent Tom Oakes, CL Squires and Co at Inverell, said some clients would have a larger number of weaners to offer in the short-term, boosting overall yardings.

These were people who had moved away from trading and into breeding in recent times as the weaner market took off and seasonal conditions were so good, he said.

"The market dropped hard and quick after Christmas but it seems to have now hit a level everyone is comfortable with and it looks like staying firm," Mr Oakes said.

"If we get some oats crops in, it will probably lift a bit but it won't return to where it was, everyone knows that."

The latest beef figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show higher carcase weights largely offset falls in slaughter last year.

Cattle slaughter fell 2.8 per cent, or 171,400 in 2022 compared to 2021, to reach 5.85m head. This volume was the lowest yearly slaughter rate since 1984, Meat & Livestock Australia's senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson said.

Carcase weights averaged 319kg/head, which was 13pc, or 37kg/head, above the 20-year average.

So overall beef production fell by only 0.77pc.

Mr Atkinson said the data demonstrates the genetic investment producers have made by retaining and breeding high-quality stock over the past two years.

That bodes well for Australia's ability to capitalise on emerging opportunities in the global market, such as volatile or decreased supply from other major beef exporters.