One of the world's leading climate forecasters has declared La Nina officially over.
More and more experts are tipping the wet climate driver will this year be replaced with the drier El Nino.
The US National Weather Service this week confirmed what most agencies, including Australia's own Bureau of Meteorology, have been saying for months.
The third La Nina is over and the climate will bump along under neutral conditions with a fourth La Nina ruled out, and El Nino favoured to form later this year.
The World Meteorological Organisation says the drier El Nino "is considered likely" for Australia.
The WMO says neutral conditions will continue between March and May.
"The chances of El Nino developing, while low in the first half of the year (15 per cent chance in April-June), gradually increase to 35pc in May-July," the WMO forecasts.
"Long-lead forecasts for June-August indicate a much higher chance (55pc) of El Nino developing but are subject to high uncertainty associated with predictions this time of the year."
While declaring La Nina over, the US National Weather Service said the consensus of world forecasters favored "ENSO-neutral" through the Australian winter "with elevated chances of El Nino developing afterwards".
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It's monthly summary warned "it is possible that strong warming near South America may portend a more rapid evolution toward El Nino and will be closely monitored".
Overseas forecasters say many computer climate models are predicting a transition into El Nino "sometime later this year".
They all included the same rider "right now is a very tricky time of year for the models".
BOM's most recent climate outlook predicts below average rainfall is likely (60pc-80pc chance) for April to June across Australia.
The bureau's other long-range forecasts say La Nina is ending.
"All but one of the surveyed international climate models suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will remain neutral through autumn," it says.
Again there is the warning about on the danger of make long-term predictions at this time of year.
"Outlooks extending beyond autumn should be viewed with caution as models typically have lower forecast accuracy at this time of year."
Chris McLennan
ACM national rural property writer based in Bacchus Marsh, Victoria. Career journalist. Multi award winner.
ACM national rural property writer based in Bacchus Marsh, Victoria. Career journalist. Multi award winner.
