Mutton is going cheap - in fact, compared to the last five years, the only thing cheaper to chuck on the barbie is goat meat.
The last time the mutton market plunged to the current 300c to 400c range, was during 2015-16.
Even during the drought of 2018-19 mutton held between 400c and 500c.
Mercardo analyst, Angus Brown said the positive is that prices remain better than any time prior to 2010, but that is cold comfort for those looking to sell sheep.
"It is interesting to note that in 2019 mutton prices were still in the 400c to 500c range," Mr Brown said.
"This suggests demand for mutton is weaker, and this can be either at the export end, or at processor level.
"The issue at processor level is that lamb supply is also good at the moment. "
Mr Brown said there is only so much kill space for sheep, lambs and goats, and it doesn't matter how good export prices are when there is a bottleneck at processor level.
It then comes back to producers' willingness to accept current prices.
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The latest data on export values is from December.
Back then mutton was making around 700c/kg swt, well back from the peaks of 900c to 1000c in mid-2022.
Matt Dalgleish, analyst from ep3 agrees that mutton pricing remains in the doldrums, and the relatively cheaper sheep meat option seems to be attracting processor interest.
"Since last November to the start of March, the east coast mutton price has eased by about 35pc, down from around 530c/kg to 350c/kg cwt in recent times," Mr Dalgleish said.
"In contrast the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) has dropped by just 10pc, from around 820c/kg cwt to 740c/kg."
Since early February, east coast sheep slaughter volumes have pushed beyond the five-year seasonal trend with average weekly processing levels sitting at around 140,000 head of sheep, around 19pc higher than the five-year average trend and 65pc higher than the processing levels seen during this time frame in 2022.
"NSW based processors seem to be making the most of the pricing opportunity with sheep slaughter volumes in NSW running 35pc above the five-year trend over the past four weeks.
"In contrast, Victorian meat works are putting sheep volumes through that are just 6pc ahead of the five-year average pattern," Mr Dalgleish said.
February 2023 export flows shows another solid month for Aussie mutton exports with a 15pc gain noted on January levels to see 15,592 tonnes swt consigned.
This is the strongest February export flows of mutton since 2019 with volumes that are 14pc above the five-year average trend for February and 37pc higher than what was seen exported during February 2022.
"The top two destinations for Australian mutton, China and Malaysia, have started the 2023 season on fire and have contributed greatly to to the solid start overall," Mr Dalgleish said.
China has backed up their strongest ever January flows on record with their strongest ever February flows on record with 6,407 tonnes shipped.
The export volume of Aussie mutton to China increased 18pc over January, and flows in February were sitting 52pc above the five-year average trend.
Malaysia has cemented the second place position ahead of the USA as a top destination for Aussie mutton accounting for nearly 15pc of trade flows so far in 2023 compared to the USA on 8pc.
February saw Malaysia take 30pc more mutton from Australia than in January with 2,430 tonnes reported to be exported.
This is the strongest February flow since 2020 and represents trade levels than are 42pc above the five-year average pattern for this time in the year.
