AUSTRALIA's official weather forecaster has issued a 'high chance' forecast for much of the nation for June to August, that includes warmer than usual temperatures.
The Bureau of Meteorology's extended prediction technical lead Catherine Ganter said there was a high chance of below average rainfall, particularly in southern areas of Australia.
"Southern areas have at least twice the normal chance of winter rainfall falling in the bottom 20 per cent of records," Ms Ganter said.
BOM says key climate influences include:
- The chance of El Nino forming in the Pacific Ocean.
- Signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole forming in winter.
- Warmer than average ocean temperatures around Australia.
The risk of frost is also heightened for inland southern areas, she said.
"Even though average minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual this winter, there will still be times of cold wintry conditions," Ms Ganter said.
"This can increase the frost risk when there are still nights that are clear of cloud cover."
BOM's winter long-range forecast says cooler nights can be expected across western NSW, parts of southern Queensland, eastern South Australia and southern areas of the Northern Territory.
There is also a heightened bushfire risk for northern Australia, particularly in the Northern Territory and parts of NSW and north western South Australia.
BOM remains at El Nino 'watch' level, which means around double the usual chance of an El Nino event.
