AUSTRALIAN winter crop production is set to drop by a whopping 34 per cent according to the latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) crop report, however in spite of the falls it will still sit at around the long-term average mark.
ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said the forecaster was predicting a national crop of 44.9 million tonnes, significantly down on last year's record of 67.5m tonnes, with the figure 3pc lower than the 10-year average.
It marks the end of a boom period with Australia recording a rare three years of well above average winter crop production.
Weighing heavily on the estimates are predicted weather patterns correlated with below average rainfall, included double the normal chance of an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean and elevated risk of an Indian Ocean Dipole positive event.
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In terms of conditions thus far in the cropping season Dr Greenville said it had been a mixed bag.
"Early autumn rainfall in some major cropping regions in southern Victoria, southern New South Wales, southern Queensland, South Australia and central cropping regions in Western Australia replenished soil moisture levels and provided favourable planting conditions in those areas," he said.
"However, autumn rainfall in northern and southern cropping regions in Western Australia, northern New South Wales, northern Victoria and parts of southern and Central Queensland has been lower than average and soil moisture levels have remained low."
The report was written before useful falls of up to 25mm for previously dry parts of far north-west Victoria, with more forecast this week.
Overall, in spite of the headwinds, the season is still expected to track well within the long-term average range.
Winter crop production is expected to decline to 3pc below the 10-year average to 2022-23 of 46.4 million tonnes.
And with a positive pricing outlook, Dr Greenville forecast farmers in many regions would stay in the black this season.
"On a more positive note, high crop prices, good seasons and record farm cash incomes over the last three years meaning many growers will stay in a strong financial position despite the fall in production."
After worries about in-season rainfall Dr Greenville nominated mice as the major point of concern.
"Increased mouse activity in many cropping regions has resulted in growers undertaking more baiting this season."
In terms of plantings, there will be swings out of wheat and canola and into barley, traditionally regarded as a hardier crop in drought settings.
Wheat plantings will fall 2pc to 12.8 million hectares, canola will be the big faller, down 11pc to 3.5m ha and barley will increase by 4pc to 4.3m ha.
Dr Greenville said in spite of the shift out of wheat and canola it was a big plant.
"Despite the decline in production and weather events, national planting to winter crops in 2023-24 is set to remain historically high in 2023-24 at 23.3m ha, 6pc above the 10-year average to 2022-23."
On the summer cropping front he said total summer crop production in 2022-23 is estimated to fall to 5.1m tonnes, down 8pc from the record production achieved in 2021-22, but remaining 43pc above the 10-year average.