National crop defies the odds and remains on track for average yields

Australian Crop Forecasters agricultural analyst Rod Baker said his organisation currently was forecasting a 27.9 million tonne national wheat crop, slightly above the long-term average, but added there would likely be further cuts to this figure which would bring it back close to average.

"The issues in northern NSW and in parts of the low rainfall zone of Western Australia along with hot weather in Queensland mean that figure is likely to come back but a lot, particularly in WA, will depend on what kind of rainfall we see in the second half of August," he said.

Australian Oilseeds Federation (AOF) executive officer Nick Goddard said things were looking good for canola, with its major production zones in southern and western Australia less impacted by dry conditions so far.

In its most recent report the AOF was forecasting a 5.59 million tonne crop, which is a big fall of 29 per cent on last year's record crop of 7.93m tonnes.

However, this figure is 35pc above the 10 year average.

Victoria and South Australia will be the two states to get closest to last year's bin-bursting figures.

"It is a very good story for canola, with the June rainfall very beneficial for potential yield," Mr Goddard said.

In the west Mr Baker said in the central wheatbelt things were set up for a critical month.

"Crops generally are looking for a rain, that is more critical the further north and east you go, while in the higher rainfall zones it is looking pretty good for the most part."

"Many drier parts of the state still have the potential for average crops overall if they can get 25mm or so in the next couple of weeks.

"In other areas, crops are looking as good if not better than last year, so overall we have wheat for WA at 9.8 million tonnes, which is around average, the next month will be critical in seeing which way the season goes."

Bruce Watson, farmer at Parkes, NSW and Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) northern panel member, said his area was right on the cusp.

"It has been dry, we've had 120mm of growing season rainfall and 240mm for the year but things are still ticking along OK, with some stored water from last year," he said.

"We're nervous about the coming months, given we don't have a lot of moisture in reserve and there is the forecast of El Nino."

He said to the south crops began to improve around West Wyalong, with some impressive early sown crops out in the lower rainfall zones around Condobolin and Lake Cargelligo, but to the north things began to fall away.

"We're really right in between the good and the bad at this stage."

On the Eyre Peninsula in SA there are varying prospects.

In the south, around Cummins, Mark Modra, said it had been slightly on the wet side until recent weeks.

"We've had trafficability issues, which combined with a lack of availability of urea which would help the crops to grow and use moisture has left things a little slow with some crops a bit nitrogen deficient but overall we're fairly pleased with how things are tracking," he said.

"Considering all the forecasts were for drier than average conditions we're happy we've got some moisture in the bank."

At the northern end of the peninsula, however, Dion Woolford, Kimba, said rain forecast this week was critical.

"We've been dry for some time now, we really wanted a rain three weeks ago and it is getting quite tight now," he said.

"The subsoil moisture from last year is largely used up and we're hoping for some rain this week to at least keep us in the hunt."