There could well be gold at the end of the rainbow for those who bite the bullet and weather the woeful times on the immediate horizon in the lamb game.
There is nothing that is price supportive for lamb and mutton at the moment but that will inevitably lead to a reduction in the sheep flock and numbers going forward.
Prominent analyst Simon Quilty, from Global AgriTrends, believes the likelihood that those sheep producers exiting on this wave of hardship will return is small.
The backdrop of the live sheep export ban combined with changes in farming and land use will mean fewer sheep in the system hereafter, he says.
What that adds up to is tighter numbers from 2025 onwards, and when that collides with a turn in the global sheep meat supply situation, there is only one way sheep prices can go - upwards.
The factors contributing to lamb prices now sitting at a 10-year low are now well documented: oversupply of boxed meat on the global market, oversupply of live weight lambs at home courtesy of a rebuilt flock and restricted capacity in processing plants.
Mr Quilty said these factors will continue to dog the market until at least the middle of next year.
Underpinning all that, of course, is the massive knock to sentiment on the back of the Albanese Government marching ahead with its plans to ban the live-ex trade.
The processing woes are more labour-induced than bricks and mortar, Mr Quilty said, and the small stock sector has been more vulnerable to the lack of workers than cattle by almost double.
Meanwhile, the NSW sheep flock has moved into liquidation, meaning a sustained oversupply period, particularly as dry conditions prevail.
Beef and lamb prices have fallen by 43 per cent in recent months but mutton takes the cake at 55pc.
Mr Quilty says both the herd and flock in NSW has now entered the liquidation phase.
Queensland flirted with herd liquidation just before the rain came in July but is now stable. Victoria is not showing signs yet.
NSW's small stock supply will increase as liquidation sets in, he said.
"Since 2010, Australia's sheep flock has moved in tandem with the cattle herd size," Mr Quilty said.
"Australia's female cattle slaughter in the past 12 weeks has moved higher and, as a result, has seen the rebuild slow and, in some states, stop altogether and in NSW, herd liquidation is now underway.
The NSW female cattle kill has moved above the rebuild/liquidation threshold of 47.8pc.
At its peak in recent weeks, it hit 57pc.
The small stock kill in NSW has, over the past 12 weeks, averaged 166,000 head per week, which is 22pc higher than the same period last year and 7pc higher than quarter one of this year.
"I expect the size of the NSW herd and flock will fall over the next 12 months as kills move higher and liquidation gets going across both sectors," Mr Quilty said.
Global AgriTrends expects this year's NSW flock to peak at 25.5 million head and fall to 24.5m by mid next year.
It has the NSW herd falling from an expected 5m head to 4.3m as drier conditions prevail.
Shan Goodwin
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
