The blessed, the pain and the tightrope: Cattle season mixed bag

Where there is feed, the cattle buying opportunity is phenomenal. Elders national livestock manager Peter Homann describes it as the best he's ever seen.

But where it's bad, the heartbreaking job of culling has already started. The last drought is still firmly imprinted in minds and many are opting to sell rather than feed.

It's where there are pockets of feed, however, that is causing the most angst.

This is presenting a super tight balancing act.

The opportunity is indeed huge but potentially short-term. Concerns about dry conditions and high temperatures ahead are well-founded.

It's not just about the feed in front of you right now.

Still, no one in the business of beef can afford wasted opportunity and, as Mr Homman says, "this is where the smart people make their money."

Will the painful memories of not being able to get animals to saleable weights hold people back?

Should it?

The Australian Feedbase Monitor shows the extent to which the season has turned in some parts, with the impacts of a dry winter showing up in quickly deteriorating pastures.

North western NSW, south western Queensland, the northern pastoral regions of South Australia and the middle of Western Australia are the toughest.

Consultant Alastair Rayner, RaynerAg, said there was enormous caution in those parts, with offloading well and truly underway.

The Hunter and New England regions of NSW were also suffering, with many having now given up on crops and let the cattle in, he said.

"There are alot of people hoping desperately for early spring rain," he said.

"Some parts of the Monaro still have a good level of feed but in others it is running out fast."

By comparison, producers in places like north Queensland have described seasonal conditions as among the best they've seen.

In fact, the majority of Australia's cattle-growing country is faring pretty well right now.

There are good volumes of dry standing feed, stocking rates are relatively low and producers have room to move.

Most of Victoria has reasonable feed, except for the East Gippsland and western parts pushing into SA.

SA is far more spotty. The south western corner of WA and the Kimberley looks pretty good.

Many agents are concerned producers in the good parts might miss opportunities due to over caution around El Nino.

"Everyone is finishing their sentences with El Nino now, when cattle with meat on them are making good money," Mr Homann said.

"You can sell one bullock and replace it three times with a lighter heifer.

"There's big opportunity right now and it would be terrible to see it go wanting because everyone is running scared.

"There are issues with labour in plants, and full chillers around the world - that's all real - but there's blue sky ahead.

"In southern Australia, five new beef processing plants are coming online and an extra 30,000 head a week could be needed by early next year.

"If people sit on the fence now, they'll likely regret it. El Nino talk is having a bigger effect on the job than it deserves right now."

Mr Rayner agreed it was a buyer's market but said producers really needed to have a good understanding of what their feedbase was like, plus have strategies in place for if it was consumed and rain did not come.

Supplementing to get them over the line means the break-even becomes much more difficult, he said.

"It's so important to offset the risk of having cattle that have to be marketed before finished," Mr Rayner said.

He advised looking at seasonal trends emerging not only for your part of the country but elsewhere too, and looking at trends over the years.

"That gives you a much better chance of aligning with what's happened before and knowing when you have to move," he said.