Seasonal uncertainty shapes shorn wool prediction

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee has confirmed its April estimate of shorn wool production for 2022/23 of 328 Mkg greasy, up 1.3 per cent on 2021/22.

AWPFC chairman Stephen Hill said the favourable conditions for sheep and wool production evident in autumn carried forward to the end of the 2022/23 season.

"Abundant pasture availability in key wool producing regions maintained average cut per head at historically high levels in most states," he said.

"Shorn sheep numbers were similar to the 2021/22 season at 71.5 million head (down 0.1pc)".

Nationally the average cut per head is estimated to be 4.59 kg greasy, 2.2pc higher than the 2021/22 season.

New South Wales continues to have the largest sheep flock with 25.9 million sheep expected to be shorn and produce 119.0 Mkg of greasy wool.

Victoria is expected to shear 16.1 million sheep to produce 70.0 Mkg greasy, while Western Australia is tipped to produce 60.6 Mkg greasy wool from 13 million sheep.

While favourable seasonal conditions in major wool producing regions during April carried through to the end of the 2022/23 season, an uncertain outlook has played into the committee's second forecast for the 2023/2024 season.

With producers wary of carrying excess stock if the season deteriorates, prospects of hotter and drier weather will shape decisions around selling or retaining stock going into summer.

Reduced sheep meat prices and processing capacity issues are expected to see the amount of sheep shorn increase by 0.8pc to 72.1 million, as producers hold back sheep that would have otherwise been turned off.

Average cut per head is also expected to decrease by 2.2pc to 4.50 kg greasy due to retained lambs in most states and the hotter and drier seasonal outlook.

The National Committee drew on advice from the six state committees, each of which includes growers, brokers, private treaty merchants, sheep pregnancy scanners, representatives from state Departments of Agriculture and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.

Data and input were also drawn from the Australian Wool Exchange, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Sciences and Meat and Livestock Australia.

The state and national Committees will next meet in mid-December 2023 to review its forecast once the seasonal and market outlook is better understood.