![Good winter rain has helped Mallee crops, such as this one at Nandaly taken earlier in the season, set up well. Photo by Gregor Heard. Good winter rain has helped Mallee crops, such as this one at Nandaly taken earlier in the season, set up well. Photo by Gregor Heard.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/5Q2j7ezUfQBfUJsaqK3gfB/177c0d9f-cefc-4289-b799-813565a6d5f3_rotated_90.JPG/r0_0_3240_4320_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Victoria's low rainfall zone, the Mallee, in the state's north-west, is just a couple of rains away from cementing unexpected strong yield potential.
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Farmers entered the autumn sowing period cautiously with optimism surrounding good subsoil moisture levels tempered by both the limited ability of the sandy soils in the region to store moisture and the strong Bureau of Meteorology forecast of drier than expected conditions.
However, there has been better than anticipated winter rain through much of the region, culminating in welcome falls of 10-25mm last week that were far more than forecast.
Chris Kelly, Woomelang, said the entire region looked a picture at present.
"We've seen healthy crops all the way up into the Millewa, things look really good for this time of year, emergence was slightly later than last year but there has been good rain exactly when we've needed it since," he said.
"There are a lot of lentils in and given the price of them at present it would be great to see the yield potential realised at harvest.
"The potential is there for crops just as good as the last couple of big years, we still have a way to go but it is good shape for now.
"We still need some sort of spring rainfall but it will not need to be a lot to bring us up to average yields, so long as it does not get too hot or we have frost."
Fiona Best, Birchip Cropping Group (BCG) chief executive said last week's rain had been very welcomed.
"There were falls of 18mm at Warracknabeal and Birchip and good tallies further north, it was very well received, the crops were not desperate for rain but these falls came at exactly the right time," she said.
"From here on in we will probably want one rain to guarantee something while two good rains would set up above average yields."
She said the heavier soils in the southern Mallee had the potential to store more moisture than in the north, where the soils are sandier, but said both areas were in a good position.
"The northern Mallee is probably a little more reliant on in-crop rainfall but both areas has received more rainfall so far than might be expected in a year with such a strong signal for dry conditions," Ms Best said.
"Access to nitrogen has been tricky but where it is not a limiting factor we currently generally have crops with above average potential."
Ian Hastings, Ouyen, said solid spring rainfall would be needed for crops to realise their current prospects but said it had been a better than expected winter.
"We have received rainfall a couple of times in excess of what was predicted which is always nice," he said.
"We're a long way from home yet and there is always the worry of heat stress and dry conditions developing but at present things could be a lot worse."
With crop conditions deteriorating in northern NSW and Queensland domestic grain users will be closely monitoring the situation in the Mallee to see if it emerges as an unlikely source of additional grain based on early season forecasts for a poorer season.